713
FXUS63 KTOP 030511
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1211 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Hot and dry weather continue. Highs remain around 100 degrees
 through at least the weekend.

-A bit of relief looks possible by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The mid-level pattern hasn`t changed much with H5 analysis showing a
large ridge positioned over the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS,
and southwest flow from the Four Corners region through the Upper
Midwest. Water vapor also shows the remnants of Tropical Storm
Edouard over eastern TX. Sfc analysis reveals a similar set up with
high pressure east, a trough of low pressure in far western KS and
breezy southwest winds in between. This hot pattern will likely have
us exceed triple digits for the fourth day in a row this afternoon.
These highs keep us a lot closer to daily records than average highs
which are currently in the mid 80s and slowly dropping with time.
Thus, heat remains the main concern, especially considering the
prolonged nature of this heat wave and the fact that overnight
temperatures don`t offer much relief. As a result, a Heat Advisory
is in effect each afternoon through Friday and will likely get
extended through the weekend.

Late tonight and early Thursday morning, there is a low probability
for isolated showers in north-central KS where there may be some
isentropic ascent. Have kept POPs less than 15 percent for now given
the low confidence of any measurable precipitation, supported by
weak forcing a lack of saturation in the column. Instead, heat will
continue and be reinforced as the mid-level ridge builds westward
over the central CONUS this weekend and holds firm into next week. A
bit of relief may arrive during the middle of next week as long range
models show the ridge flattening and a possible cold front moving
through the area by late week. The EC is more set on this solution
than the GFS currently, even bringing some decent QPF with the front.
We will have to watch how models trend in the long range, but for
now, confidence remains high in dry and very hot weather for at
least the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions through the period with a persistent forecast in place
once again. Winds generally under 10kts during the early morning
hours as the BL remains partially mixed. A weak nocturnal LLJ will be
in place this morning but LLWS conditions appear to be marginal with
turbulence being the primary impact due to a steady increase in wind
speeds through FL020 and only slight directional change expected.
After sunrise, expect deeper mixing again into mid-morning. Gusts
into the low to mid 20kt range into this evening before relaxing
again.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            77
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            79

September 4  Topeka     78, set in 2014            76
 Concordia  79, set in 1954            79

September 5  Topeka     76, set in 1983            77
 Concordia  78, set in 1899            78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Drake
CLIMATE...Poage