388
FXUS63 KTOP 231128
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
628 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are expected (60-85% chance) to develop this afternoon
  (3-5 PM) and grow into a line as they track east-southeast.

- Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards with these
  storms, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible.

- Low relative humidity and elevated winds create very high
  fire danger this afternoon/evening across north central
  Kansas.

- Additional strong to severe storms are possible Saturday
  afternoon/evening and again Sunday into early Monday. Details
  regarding timing, location, and hazards remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A potent closed upper low has progressed into the Northern Plains
and southern Saskatchewan early this morning with a wave of energy
rounding the base of this trough across Utah and Colorado. Stratus
has once again overspread the area and increasing isentropic ascent
could lead to some drizzle/light rain and maybe even a thunderstorm
or two this morning. As the UT/CO shortwave ejects towards the
Central Plains this afternoon, a dryline and cold front are shunted
into the area. 00z guidance has sped up the progression of these
features with the surface trough axis progged to extend from near
Washington to Salina by 3 PM. The faster speed allows for very dry
air to advect into north central Kansas and will create very high
fire danger this afternoon. See the Fire Weather discussion below
for more.

A faster front also shifts the area of likely convective initiation
farther east along the aforementioned surface trough axis.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates, eroding CIN, and clearing of low
clouds is likely to support thunderstorm development between 2-4 PM.
MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg along with 30-35kts of effective shear will
favor supercells initially. Hodographs are largely straight as
storms develop, which could favor splitting storms capable of
producing hail up to 2.5" in diameter, 60-70 MPH wind gusts, and a
tornado or two, although the low-level winds are not overly
favorable for tornadoes initially. Convection is expected to grow
upscale into a line and damaging wind gusts will become the main
hazard. The environment becomes more favorable for tornadoes during
the late afternoon and evening as the low-level jet strengthens.
0- 3km shear vectors are 25-30kts from the west-southwest, so
any north- south oriented section of the line would have the
best chance at producing a spin-up tornado, especially early on
as the convective line may tend to become more parallel to these
shear vectors through the evening, reducing the tornado
potential. There remains some uncertainty in how far the line
will maintain its intensity as it advances east. Some guidance
holds on to stratus across far eastern Kansas through the
daytime hours, which may create a less favorable environment and
tend to weaken the line as it pushes east. On the other hand,
there is guidance that shows scattering of the stratus deck
across all of eastern Kansas, which would create a more
favorable environment for a sustained line of storms. The
flooding potential appears low given anticipated fast movement
of the line of storms. The risk for severe storms will end by
10-11 PM this evening as storms exit the area.

Quasi-zonal flow sets up across the Central Plains Friday into early
next week with periodic perturbations moving through the flow.
Friday looks dry behind Thursday`s system, but precipitation chances
increase Saturday. Details are still hard to determine at this
range, but the environment during the afternoon and evening could
support some strong to severe storms. Higher chances for severe
storms come on Sunday into early Monday as a stronger, negatively
tilted shortwave ejects across the Plains. Plenty of uncertainty
exists with this round of storms as well, namely timing of the wave,
location of the warm sector, and what impact possible precipitation
through the daytime hours Sunday will have on the severe risk. Stay
up to date with the latest forecast information over the next couple
of days as details become more clear.

Precipitation chances decrease through the day Monday with dry
conditions favored into Tuesday before chances increase again
Wednesday. Temperatures hold near climatological norms from Friday
into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

MVFR cigs persist this morning with guidance continuing to show VFR
conditions returning to KMHK around midday. Confidence was high enough
to add in prevailing VFR at KMHK by 19z, but KTOP/KFOE are likely
to hold on to low cigs until at least late afternoon. Storms are
expected to form along a front this afternoon. Exact location of
storm development remains unclear; storms may form near KMHK before
forming a line and impacting KTOP/KFOE between 23-02z. Cigs are expected
to return to VFR at all sites with weaker winds this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

While humidity is high this morning, a dryline/cold front will move
into north central Kansas this afternoon. Very dry air will exist
behind this feature, with relative humidity values quickly falling
to 15-20 percent, perhaps as low as 10 percent depending on the
speed of the boundary. How far east the front will push remains in
question, but confidence has increased in this front reaching at
least Republic, Cloud, and Ottawa Counties, potentially as far east
as Washington, Clay, and Dickinson Counties. Winds shift to the
northwest behind the boundary, but are expected to be relatively
weak, generally 10-15 MPH. This will preclude the need for a Red
Flag Warning, but will still create very high fire danger across
portions of north central Kansas this afternoon and evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan