164
FXUS63 KTOP 172316
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There could be an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, with
  better chances across the southeast counties..


- Confidence in a warming trend through the weekend and into Monday
  is good. Some locations could see triple digits for highs Monday.

- A pattern shift by the middle of next week looks to bring about
  more normal temperatures and a chance for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Early this afternoon water vapor satellite imagery along with upper
air analysis showed broad upper level ridge located across the
central Rockies, extending east across the NE/SD borer. A broad upper
low was centered across the South Plains and southern Panhandle of
TX. A southern stream upper ridge axis was centered across the
western Gulf and extended northeast into the southern MS River
Valley. A broad upper level trough was located across the the Great
Lakes and northeast US. An upper trough was moving onshore across the
Pacific Northwest. Minor mid-level perturbations were noted on the
east side of the upper low over west TX and the H5 ridge axis across
southeast TX.

the 17Z surface analysis showed a surface cold front extending from
northwest MN, southwest across eastern SD into northeast WY. Surface
winds were southwesterly across the CWA. Temperatures were in the
mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s across much of east central
KS. Widely scattered showers and and thunderstorms were already
developing across south central and southeast KS. Mainly along a
line from ICT east-southeast into southeast KS.


Today through Tonight:

A few mid-level perturbations will move northeast across the eastern
half of the CWA this afternoon. The ascent ahead of the these
perturbations may provide enough ascent for isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms across east central KS this
afternoon. These will be pulse storms but the instability is forecast
to be a bit higher then yesterday, with MLCAPES of 1200-1800 J/KG,
so I would not be surprised that the stronger pulse storms may cause
some 40 to 50 MPH isolated wind gusts when the updrafts collapse.
PWs are forecasted to be around 2.15 inches, thus there could be some
brief heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches within an hour. The
HRRR/RAP/FV3 Cams have been trending down in the chances for isolated
storms. This may be due to the synoptic scale subsidence under the
H5 ridge axis to our northwest. The RAP/HRW/NAM 3KM CAMs show more of
a scattered area of thunderstorms developing by 20Z across the
southeast/south central counties of the CWA, and spreading northeast
across east central KS after 21Z. These CAMs may be resolving the
mid level perturbation shifting northeast out of northern OK. I went
with 15 to 24 pops across east central KS this afternoon, with 25 to
30 PoPs across the southeast counties. By 00Z SAT, the widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms should shift northeast of the CWA
and weaken.

Saturday through Tuesday:

The center of the H5 ridge axis across the SD/NE border will
gradually build south-southwest across the central Plains. Look for
temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s on Saturday, mid 90s
on Sunday, upper 90s to near 100 degrees on Monday afternoon. Looks
like the PBL will mix deep enough that afternoon dewpoints will mix
down into the mid to upper 60s. This should keep afternoon heat
indicies at or below 100 degrees Saturday and sunday. Monday, the
mixing may not be as deep across east central KS with afternoon
dewpoints in the lower 70s and high temperatures in the upper 90s.
Thus, heat indices may approach the 105 degree mark in some areas
of east central KS. A heat advisory may be needed for Monday
afternoon, though there still remains uncertainty in how deep the
PBL will mix Monday afternoon.

Tuesday, a surface front will push southward across the CWA. The
center of the H5 ridge will retrograde west into CO and western KS
but the perturbations will ride around the H5 ridge axis and remain
north across eastern NE. Therefore, the ascent will be too weak for
storms to develop, or if storms manage to develop along the front,
they will be isolated with PoPs under 14 percent Tuesday afternoon.
Highs north of the front across the northern counties of the CWA will
only reach the lower 90s with mid to upper 90s across south of the
surface front. Heat indices may be around 102 degrees across he
southeast counties.

Tuesday night through Friday:

The extended range models are in good agreement with retrograding the
H5 ridge westward across the west central US. Northwest flow will
develop across the central Plains and a series of embedded
perturbations may move southeast across the Plains, providing chances
for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday. High
temperatures will be cooler with mid to upper 80s north and upper 80s
to lower 90s south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

After isolated storms move away from the MHK terminal, chances
should diminish the rest of the evening with decreasing instability.
Otherwise, light winds continue from the south to southwest with
diurnal cumulus.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Picha