541
FXUS63 KTOP 031945
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
245 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Due to high confidence in a prolonged heat wave extending into
early next week, the Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Extreme
Heat Warning and extended through Tuesday.

- Some relief may finally come late next week, although even that is
looking more uncertain.

- Some rain chances are in the forecast for the middle of next week,
but they are low (15-20%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge continues to dominate the southeastern US with one
trough noted just southeast of the Hudson Bay and a deeper upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. This keeps weaker southwest flow
aloft in our area with the stronger upper flow towards the
mountainous regions. At the surface, low pressure has developed in
the Dakotas with its trough axis into central NE and western KS, all
in response to that troughing pattern. This has resulted in somewhat
breezy southerly winds across eastern KS. The deeper moisture
resides in TX/LA within remnants of the tropical system, and you
have to get to OK before finding dew points in the 70s, but we are
getting close in our area. The southerly low-level flow should
gradually pull some of this moisture north and help to offset some
of the deeper mixing that has occurred in recent days. Heat indices
so far today have reached the 99-104 degree range and there is still
time to heat up a little more this afternoon.

The overall sentiment was to not make the headline decision overly
complicated with this forecast cycle. The upper pattern shows an
omega block developing into the weekend with the ridge retrograding
and becoming centered right over the Central Plains. This is not
conducive to conditions changing anytime soon, and ensemble cluster
analysis continues to show upper ridging holding over the central US
through at least Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Forecast temperature
ranges also remain small through Tuesday with highs in the upper 90s
to around 100 and lows in the mid to upper 70s. These ranges only
widen slightly on Wednesday. It isn`t until Thursday that longer
range guidance starts to show some divergence in the model
solutions, depending on how well low pressure systems riding the
ridge will actually weaken it. This means there is some potential
for lowering temperatures closer to 90, but even that is not certain
as some solutions continue to keep the ridge overhead, which would
lead to continued heat. Based on a combination of the pattern being
favorable for prolonged heat, high confidence in hot temperatures,
warm lows providing little opportunity for relief, and increased
likelihood for impacts with the holiday weekend and outdoor
activities, we felt it was prudent to upgrade the advisory to an
Extreme Heat Warning and extend it through Tuesday. Cannot rule out
possibly extending it into Wednesday as well. It should also be
mentioned that even if dew points end up being slightly lower than
forecast and heat indices don`t reach or exceed 105 degrees in many
places, 100-104 degree heat indices for multiple days in a row
aren`t going to make much difference from an impacts standpoint,
especially with warm mornings compounding the heat stress each day.

In addition to late next week having lower confidence in seeing
meaningful relief from the heat, there are some low chances for
rain. But the same model differences leading to that uncertainty in
temperatures also make it hard to have much confidence in rain
chances, as the track of the systems (if they hold) favor rain
chances outside of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions persist. Southerly winds sustained 10-15 kts will gust
to 20-25 kts at times this afternoon before diminishing around
sunset. The LLJ looks to increase to around 35 kts overnight, but
low-level profiles favor more of a turbulence setup over LLWS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 4  Topeka     78, set in 2014            76
 Concordia  79, set in 1954            76

September 5  Topeka     76, set in 1983            74
 Concordia  78, set in 1899            75

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Picha/Poage