740
FXUS63 KTOP 231734
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1134 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A preview of much welcome spring-like temperatures this week
  with above-normal temperatures starting today with highs in
  the 50s and 60s.

- Small chances (generally 10-20%) for precipitation mainly over
  northern areas late Tuesday into Wednesday in the form of
  rain. No snow!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A mostly quasi-zonal flow regime remains in place across much of the
central to northern tier of the CONUS. A southern Pacific low
pressure system is advancing east over the southern Plains. A low
amplitude shortwave is drifting east into the Upper MS Valley region
while low amplitude ridging is building east over the Northern
Rockies. A weak cold front appears to be undergoing frontolysis
over central into northern Nebraska as the upper shortwave pulls
away from the surface feature.

Early this morning, low temperatures are running about 10-15 degrees
warmer than yesterday. By Wednesday morning overnight lows may be
around 40 degrees ahead of a weak modified cold front! The warming
trend continues to dominate the forecast as a big highlight and
doesn`t appear to disappoint. Look for overall heights to rise
steadily into the upcoming weak helping to increase H85 temps to
around 10C. Downsloping flow influences could help temperatures rise
to around 60 and above by Monday. A lee trough develops ahead of the
modified cold front Tuesday helping to push highs possibly to around
70 degrees! Lack of moisture should limit overall rain chances to
around 20% or lower with some northeastern Kansas areas seeing the
deepest saturation with very weak instability according to some
profiles. Good news is the thermodynamics won`t allow for talk of
any snow and doesn`t appear that will change. So even with a slight
cool down Wednesday and Thursday, highs still look to be in the 50s
with lows in the 30s. More ridging translates across the area for
Friday with temps again into the 60s and subsequent weather systems
still tracking north of the area with limited cold push into the
region for next weekend at this point. Spreads in guidance still
look fairly tight so confidence overall remains good in the forecast
models.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected with modest south to southwest
winds and a bit of cirrus. Some NAM-based solutions keep
widespread snow cover in place through the night and
subsequently develop low cloud and fog but these are the
outliers and based on trends expect most snow cover to be
melted by 0Z. There is small potential for nocturnal low-level
wind shear as a strong inversion develops with moderate westerly
flow at the top of the boundary layer.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Poage