777
FXUS63 KTOP 052331
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms this evening for
  damaging winds. Brief heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Sunday should be drier. Expect low chances for storms through
  much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite image showed a low
amplitude upper trough across the central MO River Valley into
eastern KS. A broad upper ridge extended from the southwestern
US eastward across the mid MS River Valley, east into the mid
Atlantic states. A tropical disturbance was located off the SC
coast, with a a surface trough extending southwest into the
central Gulf. A more amplified upper trough was located
southwest Canada, with an upper trough axis extending southwest
across ID into northwest CA.

The 18Z surface analysis showed a surface front extending southwest
from eastern MN, across northeast and central NE, into western KS. A
prefrontal surface trough was located ahead of the surface front and
bisected the CWA from northeast to southwest.

Today through Tonight:

There may be a few isolated showers this afternoon but subsidence
behind the departing H5 trough should limit deep moist convection
during the afternoon hours. Early this evening most CAMs forecast
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal
trough axis along the I-70 corridor. MLCAPES will be in the 1500-
2000 J/kg range but the effective shear will be weak under 20 KTS.
Thus, any storms that develop early this afternoon along the
surface trough will be pulse in nature with the main threat
being strong to marginally severe wind gusts. PWs will range from
1.8- 2.0", so there maybe heavy rainfall with the storms this
evening and overnight. The line of scattered storms will shift
southeast across east central KS during the late evening and early
morning hours of Sunday will begin to weaken.

Sunday through Saturday:

The upper ridge across the southwest US will amplify northward
across the central Rockies. The central Plains will be under weak
northwesterly mid level flow. Minor perturbations will round the
ridge axis and dig southeast across the Plains and mid MS River
Valley. Expect warm and humid conditons with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. There will be low chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the period due to richer gulf moisture, a
weak cap and any ascent ahead of the minor H5 perturbations.
The effective shear will be weak, so only gusty winds and
potential brief heavy rainfall will be the primary hazards.

The extended models are in good agreement digging a more amplified
H5 trough southeast out of western Canada into the northern Plains
and upper Midwest late next week. This will bring a stronger front
southeast across the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Highs on
Saturday afternoon will be cooler with lower to mid 80s. There may
also be an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday
night into Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Isolated to scattered convection seems likely over the next
several hours given recent satellite and radar trends, though a
PROB30 group should suffice. Visibilities could fall well into
IFR range in high rainfall rates. Convection should shift south
of the area by 08Z as a weak boundary moves through.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Poage