399
FXUS63 KTOP 050533
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions will lead to elevated fire
  danger Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions
  of north central Kansas.

- Above-normal temperatures remain the rule Sunday through the
  middle of next week with dry conditions continuing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon
with northeasterly surface winds in place behind this morning`s cold
front. CAA has knocked temperatures down 15-20 degrees since
yesterday with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Southerly
low-level flow returns this evening and shunts the surface boundary
back to the north. Temperatures approach cross-over thresholds, but
increasing low-level winds should keep any fog confined to river
valleys or low-lying areas.

A fast-moving, potent wave across the northern US and southern
Canada will lead to the deepening of a surface low over
Saskatchewan/Manitoba and shunt a cold front into the area on
Saturday. The pressure gradient tightens ahead of this front,
leading to wind gusts of 30-35MPH through the day. 850mb
temperatures climb to 21-24 degrees C with deep mixing translating
to highs near record values in the mid to upper 90s. The airmass
will be very dry as well with relative humidity values falling into
the 15-20 percent range across north central Kansas and in the 20-30
percent range farther east. Fire partners indicate that fuels
continue to dry rapidly given a lack of recent rain and are at the
point where rapid fire growth and spread are becoming more likely.
As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of
north central Kansas where the lowest relative humidity values are
forecast. Expansion to the east and southeast may be necessary, but
confidence in relative humidity values at or below 20 percent in
this area is not high enough currently.

The cold front moves through the area Saturday evening, bringing in
even drier, but also cooler, air for Sunday. Northwest flow aloft
and northerly surface winds will lead to highs on Sunday in the mid
70s to near 80 degrees. Relative humidity values of 15-25 percent
are expected area-wide, but weaker winds of 10-15MPH will limit
overall fire danger. Northwest flow remains the rule into next week
with several disturbances moving through the flow, but a lack of
moisture will keep conditions dry. Southerly low-level winds will
support above-normal temperatures into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions will persist at all sites through the TAF period.
The main aviation hazard over the period will be gusty
southwesterly winds increasing late morning and persisting
through the afternoon. Before the BL becomes mixed (around 6-8
AM this morning), pilots may experience some low-level
turbulence through 2000 ft with light winds near the surface and
a southwesterly LLJ around 35-40 mph. This will fade away as the
BL become decoupled and surface winds increase around 10 AM.
Peak afternoon wind gusts will likely range from 35-40 mph with
sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Gusts should decrease around
6-7 pm, just before a frontal boundary slides through the area
from the northwest, shifting winds towards out of the
northwest. Winds behind the boundary should remain at or below
10 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Saturday.
Temperatures climb into the 90s with a very dry airmass in place
leading to afternoon relative humidity values of 15-20 percent
across north central Kansas and in the 20-30 percent range farther
east. Southwest winds will increase through the day with gusts of 30-
35MPH expected during the late morning into the early evening. In
addition, a cold front will sweep across the area during the late
afternoon and evening, switching winds to the north. Fire partners
indicate that fuels continue to dry rapidly given the lack of recent
rain and are at the point where rapid fire growth and spread are
becoming more likely. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been
issued for portions of north central Kansas where the lowest
relative humidity values are forecast. Expansion of the Red Flag
Warning to the east and southeast may be necessary, but confidence
in relative humidity values at or below 20 percent in this area is
not high enough currently. Recovery of humidity will be slow
Saturday night into Sunday with relative humidity only reaching 45-
60 percent before sunrise.

Minimum relative humidity values of 15-20 percent are expected area-
wide on Sunday afternoon, but weaker northerly winds of 10-15MPH
should limit the overall fire danger.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Record High Temperature for Oct 5

               Forecast      Record (Year)
Concordia         97           102 (1947)
Topeka            94            96 (1963)

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Griesemer
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan