852
FXUS63 KTOP 291919
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers developing this afternoon, with another round
 again tonight and early Thursday.

-Strong storms could then occur along a cold front Thursday night
 and very early Friday morning.

-Cooler and drier air moves in behind the front for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

This afternoon, meridional flow continues across the CONUS with a
deep trough axis across the northeast and an expansive ridge axis
over the Desert Southwest and High Plains. A shortwave is noted on
water vapor imagery over western KS on the northeast portion of the
main mid-level ridge. Associated lift ahead of the shortwave in a
unstable and very moist environment (pwats currently around 2.2
inches) is leading to additional shower/t-storm development this
afternoon in central KS. That rain will slowly move east and is
expected to dissipate with time this evening. Another round of rain
is looking possible (40-60% chance) tonight and early Thursday, with
another shortwave in the west-northwest flow combined with
isentropic ascent. Severe storms are not expected, however, isolated
heavy rainfall could again occur given the very high pwats and
overall weak atmospheric flow.

A stronger wave will round the northern portion of the ridge across
the High Plains and into the Midwest tomorrow. That will bring a
cold front into and through the area. While CAMs differ slightly in
location, timing and coverage, most agree that thunderstorms will
develop near the boundary Thursday night. Better forcing and a
higher amount of shear could allow for a few strong to severe
storms, with damaging wind still looking like the primary hazard.
Heavy rain could also occur with pwats remaining very high ahead of
the front, but storms should progress eastward with the boundary,
helping to limit the timeframe of heavy rain at any one location.
Clouds will clear throughout the day on Friday with drier (lower
Td`s) air eventually working into the area.

A surface ridge will expand over the region this weekend. Pleasant
conditions are expected Saturday with sunshine, lower dew points in
the mid 60s, and temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s.
High pressure remains over the area into early next week keeping rain
away. Temperatures will gradually warm each day from Sunday through
the middle of next week as southerly flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

There remains a slight chance for SHRA at terminals this afternoon,
but with chances around 20%, have left out that mention in TAFs. Will
make amendments if confidence increases or if additional rain
develops. Otherwise, higher chances for SH/TS return tonight and
Thursday morning. Precipitation that develops tonight should move
east of airports late this period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey