590
FXUS63 KTOP 062342
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible (50-70%) Saturday night.

- A warm up begins tomorrow with highs generally in the 80s and near
  90 early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

19Z water vapor imagery showed energy over the southwestern US
phasing with the northern stream to form an elongated upper level
trough from Northern Mexico to the Hudson Bay in Canada. A shortwave
was noted over the central Rockies and a second shortwave riding
over the upper ridge across British Columbia. Surface obs showed
high pressure across the central plains with the frontal boundary
well south along the TX gulf coast and LA.

Dry air within the surface ridge is forecast to limit precip chances
tonight as the upper trough axis swings southeast of the forecast
area. Then northwest flow is progged to setup through the weekend
and into next week. A weak shortwave looks to propagate across
northeast KS Friday morning. There are some indications from the
models for enough moisture to allow for some isolated showers to pop
up. So have POPs in the 10 to 15 percent range. A better defined
shortwave is still progged to impact the area Saturday night.
Potential for severe storms is dependent on how much moisture is
able to move north in advance of the shortwave. The 12Z NAM/GFS
develop some weak instability while keeping the warm sector along
the Red River valley. So for now concerns for severe weather are
low. There is pretty good agreement among the models in the overall
synoptic pattern so have stuck with the NBM which has most of the
area with POPs from 50 to 70 percent. Heading into next week, models
don`t really have a strong feature to focus precip chances with and
the 00Z ensemble progs were somewhat noisy with regards to precip
chances. So precip chances are generally less than 20 percent with
northwest flow expected to persist through Wednesday.

The mean westerlies are progged to move back north with a weaker
southern stream upper level jet. This should favor the cooler
temperatures remaining north of the forecast area and allow for a
warm up across the central plains. Spreads are pretty reasonable
through Sunday but tend to increase next week. Aside from a slight
cool down Sunday with a northerly wind, highs Saturday and early next
week look to be in the 80s and near 90. Tuesday is expected to be
the warmest day with highs around 90. But confidence in the 90
degree temps could be better as much of the ensembles including the
AIGEFS and HGEFS have median temps in the middle 80s. In any case a
good warm up is expected over the next seven days with temps above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR through the period. A few mid-level clouds expected into
the overnight hours before clearing. A surface ridge will
support light and variable winds early, backing southwest and
increasing through the morning hours with gusts developing
through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake