211
FXUS63 KTOP 072336
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front tomorrow afternoon brings a short window for severe
storms across east-central KS.

- Drier Monday through Wednesday with temperatures staying
near/below average.

- More shower/storm chances return for the second half of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Looking at the overall synoptic pattern this afternoon, the southern
tier of the CONUS remains in a quasi-zonal pattern, with several
embedded shortwaves moving through the flow. One of these shortwaves
moved across eastern KS this morning, with subsidence in its wake
has allowed for clearing conditions over the area. Across the
northern Plains though is a vigorous upper low that is diving
quickly southeast. This will push a stronger cold front southward
afternoon as the trough becomes more amplified over the eastern
CONUS.

The main concern in the short term will thus be the potential for a
few strong to severe thunderstorms along the front during the
afternoon Sunday. By early afternoon, the front will already be
south of I-70, with most guidance passing it through Anderson County
by 5 PM. This should limit the overall severe threat to a few hours
during the afternoon, largely near and south of Interstate 35, and
it`s not out of the question storms don`t develop at all until south
and east of the area. Having said that, the environment across east-
central KS does look to be favorable for severe weather if a storm
does form. Given 2000-3000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 40 kts of largely
straight shear, large hail up to around 1.5" would be the initial
hazard with developing storms, and potentially some 60 mph winds if
storms can form into more of a line before exiting the area. A few
showers and weaker storms could linger into the evening behind the
front, but Sunday night will turn quieter as much drier and cooler
air is ushered in behind the front.

Northwest flow aloft stays in place into Wednesday as the upper low
over the eastern CONUS gradually shifts farther east. Can`t
completely rule out a brief shower Tuesday with a weak reinforcing
front, but mostly dry weather is expected through mid-week.
Temperatures gradually warm into Wednesday but stay near or below
average. Low temperatures in particular look to be around 10 degrees
below average Monday and Tuesday mornings. Rain chances increase
Thursday into next weekend as a weak upper low lifts northeast out
of the Southern Plains, but details on coverage and amounts remain
low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Winds look light and a bit on the variable side this evening
before turning more southerly late tonight into Sunday morning.
A cold front will then shift winds back to the north near or
just under 10 kts. Will need to watch for a few thunderstorms to
develop in the mid to late afternoon, but will hold off on
mention for now as most guidance favors this activity south of
terminals. If anything does occur near TAF sites, it would be
post-frontal and chances are too low even for a PROB30 mention
at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha