547
FXUS63 KTOP 122239
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
439 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A spring-like weather pattern remains in place over the next
  week with increasing potential for near record high and low
  temperature values into early next week.

- Rain with a few thunderstorm chances set up overnight Friday
  into Saturday across the area with highest rain totals expected
  generally south of I-70.

- Southwest winds increase Monday and Tuesday across the area
  which may bring increasing fire weather concerns across the
  area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

An expansive area of high pressure remains east of the area on
the western flank of a longwave upper trough lifting out of the
New England region. A low amplitude ridge is advancing east over
the central Plains ahead of a highly amplified positively
tilted southern stream trough with axis extending from the
Inter-mountain West into southern California. Deeper Gulf
moisture remains south of the area along the Gulf Coast region
into the southern Plains.

The northern stream flow and very cold airmass source regions appear
to be relatively closed off through the forecast period with more
southern stream flow dominating any active weather periods. The
predominate broad ridging pattern looks to remain in place with warm
to very warm temperatures in the forecast for many of the remaining
days in February. Highs reach the 60s today and tomorrow with a high
degree of certainty low spreads amongst ensemble guidance and the
NBM into the middle of next week before spreads widen to more
variable, yet likely above normal temperatures. Into next week in
particular the ENS extreme forecast tables do suggest that
percentiles for Max-T across the area will be in the 70th-80th
percentiles at as of the 00Z forecast period. This suggests that
record watch for high and low temperatures may be in play at least
for the beginning of next week.

Before then, Saturday appears to be the next best chance for rain
across the area. A few embedded thunderstorms may form across a few
east-central spots as weak instability is noted in some forecast
soundings with a depth into the freezing levels early Saturday
morning. Depending on quality of moisture return, any convection
could augment rainfall rates and help increase overall totals with
the higher amounts expected across east-central areas where NAEFS
data suggest some of the higher mean PW values could be reached.
Still some uncertainty in how the southern stream positively tilted
trough phases with a weaker northern stream shortwave as it ejects
from the central Rockies around this time frame.

Will have to continue to watch the Monday and Tuesday afternoon
periods as southwest flow increases across the area as lee troughing
deepens and a low pressure system develop across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains. Depending on the depth of mixing
more dry air than forecast may be realized paired with strong
southerly winds could help bring down the minRH values and thus
increase the fire danger for these periods.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR TAFs continue through the period with light winds slowly
shifting out of the northwest through the overnight hours and
high cloud cover filtering in from the west.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Griesemer