292
FXUS63 KTOP 181112
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very High Fire Danger today. Outdoor burning is not advised.

- Temperatures remain above average for the next week with highs in
  the 70s.

- Rain chances (40-70%) return Monday, but amounts appear
  minimal (0.25 inch or less) at best.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Another dry, breezy and mild day today. While wind speeds should
be lower than yesterday and humidity slightly higher, conditions
will still be favorable for fire spread and as such, burning is
not advised. We remain fairly steady over the next week
temperature wise, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper
40s to low 50s. These steady conditions are largely due to the
deep longwave trough that is digging into the southwest CONUS
and upper-level riding in place over the Plains. An upper-level
low gets cutoff across the southwest as the northern stream
retreats to the north and the southern stream remains over the
Gulf. Eventually, this low will meander into the central Plains
Sunday night. Monday, this wave is quickly ejected out of the
area as at phases with the northern stream. There will likely be
enough lift and forcing with this passing system to spark some
showers, but it appears moisture will be rather lacking. As a
result, precipitation chances are fairly high at this point
(40-70%) but potential precipitation amounts remain quite low,
generally a quarter inch or less. After this system exits, more
dry weather is favored. This means no improvement in drought
conditions or fire weather concerns is likely over the next week
or two.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Current south to southeast winds 5-10 kts will quickly strengthen to
around 15 kts with higher gusts by mid-morning. These gustier winds
will persist through the afternoon before lessening to around 5 kts
after sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue with just some late
high clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Relative humidity will be slightly higher today with afternoon values
in the 25-30 percent range. Wind speeds will be slightly lower with
sustained speeds 15-20 mph and gusts to 35 mph. These values would put
us just below Red Flag Warning criteria, however, burning is still not
recommended today. By the weekend, winds diminish further (5-15 mph) and
humidity will remain around 30%. This should lead to less fire
weather concerns through the weekend into early next week. Some much
needed rain may move through the area Monday, but unfortunately,
forecast rainfall amounts are currently so low that it would have little,
if any affect on improving drought conditions or abating fire
issues.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Jones