289
FXUS63 KTOP 021726
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below-normal temperatures continue through Monday. Hazy/smoky
  skies today with gradual improvement Sunday.

- Shower and storm chances increase tonight into Sunday with highest
  chances (40-50%) across north-central Kansas.

- Near to above average temperatures return by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The forecast area remains under the control of the strong surface
high pressure that is centered over the Upper Midwest early this
morning. Under clear skies, lows have dropped into the 50s in some
locales, making for a very nice start to the day. East-southeasterly
winds on the southwest periphery of the surface ridge continue to
transport smoke from Canadian wildfires into the region. The HRRR
and RAP show a persistent concentration of near-surface smoke
through the day today and into tonight, leading to hazy/smokey skies
and degraded air quality before near-surface smoke concentrations
decrease on Sunday. A weak perturbation has sparked convection
across central Nebraska and western Kansas, but this activity is
expected to fall apart before reaching the forecast area. With that
said, there could be enough mid-level lift and moisture for
sprinkles or a light shower across north central Kansas this
morning. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with below-normal
temperatures and lower humidity continuing today. Highs will be very
similar to yesterday in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Another shortwave will eject across the Plains this evening into
Sunday morning, increasing chances for showers and storms. Models
are in good agreement in showers and a few thunderstorms moving into
north-central Kansas between 2-4 AM Sunday morning and slowly moving
east through the morning hours. Instability is progged to be weak
across the area with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg across north-central
Kansas decreasing rapidly with eastern extent. Activity will wane
through the morning hours, although there could be some showers or
an isolated storm through the daytime hours Sunday. Yet another wave
dives southeast across the Central Plains Sunday night into early
Monday and brings another chance for some showers or storms to the
area. The cooler airmass remains in place through Monday with highs
holding steady in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Mid-level ridging builds northeast towards the Central Plains
Tuesday as surface winds become southerly. A warming trend commences
Tuesday with highs reaching back into the 90s by Wednesday. Humidity
also increases and heat index values could reach 100 degrees again
Thursday and Friday. Energy rounding the ridge could generate
occasional chances for showers and storms, although
predictability is low at this range. The 00z suite of models
are beginning to highlight the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe
as having the highest precipitation chances, but will need to
see some consistency in guidance before confidence in this
scenario increases.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Vsby has improved over the last couple of hours, although some
smoke can still be seen in the air and am hesitant to remove it
as easterly winds could still bring wildfire smoke into the
area. Guidance shows more notable improvement of near-surface
smoke concentrations into Sunday morning with low-level winds
turning a bit more southerly, but timing is uncertain.
Thunderstorms are expected to move across north central KS
overnight into Sunday morning, but they are expected to weaken
as they move east and out of the better instability. Decided to
introduce a PROB30 group for rain at MHK, while this activity
looks unlikely to reach Topeka sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Picha