225
FXUS63 KTOP 062327
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
527 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm again Friday before a strong cold front moves through on
  Saturday.

- 15-25% chance for rain during the day Saturday and again Saturday
  night.

- Much colder Sunday and Monday with lows in the teens and 20s and
  highs in the 40s!

- Temperatures warm back up by Tuesday with highs in the 60s
  through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A shortwave is translating east across the Northern and Central
Plains this afternoon with high clouds streaming overhead. A surface
cold front is draped from southeast South Dakota into western
Kansas. Ahead of this front, breezy southerly winds have bumped
temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s. The front will push
through the area this evening into the early overnight hours with a
predominantly dry frontal passage expected. Low-level moisture may
be deep enough to generate some drizzle or light rain across far
eastern Kansas before the front moves through. Winds become west-
northwesterly behind the boundary on Friday, but temperatures behind
the front remain largely unchanged and highs will be similar to
today, in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A dynamic Alberta clipper dives southeast across the central CONUS
on Saturday, shunting a significant cold front through the region.
Models have trended a bit further south and a bit stronger with this
system. Subsequently, precipitation chances have increased, but
quality of moisture remains in question as guidance shows mid-level
saturation, but abundant low-level dry air in place. A secondary
wave dives south on the heels of the clipper and brings another
chance for some light precipitation Saturday night. Forecast
soundings show saturated low-levels, but dry air aloft. Light rain
looks to be the most likely outcome, but there is a chance (10-15%)
flurries or light snow mixes in if the wave moves in a little slower
and temperatures are cooler as precipitation falls.

Anomalously cold air builds in behind this system. Strong CAA and
breezy north winds will allow temperatures to plummet Saturday night
into Sunday with temps in the 20s by sunrise Sunday. Factor in the
wind and wind chills will be in the teens! Highs on Sunday are only
forecast to reach the low 40s. A 1040mb surface high moves overhead
Sunday night and temperatures will fall into the teens for most
locales. Temperatures moderate by Tuesday as southerly low-level
flow returns; highs will reach back into the 60s through the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Wind gusts have diminished, and winds
should remain under 10 kts the rest of the period. They should
start out light from the SSW early this evening while gradually
turning to the WNW with the passage of a weak front late tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Picha