024
FXUS63 KTOP 251110
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
610 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of strong to severe storms persist this morning through
Friday late evening.

- Primary risk today through late Friday evening is locally heavy
rainfall and flooding, followed by isolated severe wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado.

- Extreme heat builds this weekend into next week with max heat
  indices at 105+ degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Another complicated short term forecast as guidance has struggled to
resolve the lesser strength of the LLJ this morning, providing the
necessary lift for widespread convection anticipated across much of
the CWA. Radar trends from the last 1-2 hours has shown an uptick in
slow moving convection from Wabaunsee to Shawnee and Jefferson
counties where rainfall rates exceeded 2 inches/per hour at times.
Further south and west towards central Kansas, more widespread
convection has resulted in some instances of flooding. As the
frontal boundary lifts northward through sunrise, storms will
continue to fester and train until the LLJ wanes by mid morning.
Environment remains ripe for flash flooding given the impressive 2+
PWAT values and strong moisture transport vectors noted on recent
mesoanalysis. Observed rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches are
becoming more common for eastern portions of the area.

Current thinking is for overall convection trends to decrease by mid
morning into early afternoon. Confidence is moderate for additional
storms by late afternoon, fueled by a slow moving MCV, tracking
northeast through the day. Forecast soundings exhibit a very moist
and unstable profile (CAPE > 3000 J/KG) by the afternoon, while
effective shear is a bit stronger at around 30 kts. Additionally low
level shear enhances by early evening with decent low level
curvature noted in the first 0-1 KM on the hodograph by recent runs
from the HRRR/RAP, hence the 2 percent tornado probabilities from
the Day 1 outlook. Damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding
are still the primary threats, however a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out.

The higher PW values remain in place through Friday evening with the
HREF guidance continuing to indicate moderate probs for training
storms, capable of producing efficient rainfall rates. For this
reason have opted to leave the Flash Flood Watch in place for much
of the outlook area through Friday evening. Total rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches with isolated locally higher amounts remain
reasonable.

On Saturday, kept the slight pops across far eastern KS into most
likely MO as the main forcing shifts eastward. Mid level heights
begin to increase Saturday afternoon into Sunday, allowing skies to
clear and temperatures to rise into the middle and upper 90s. Heat
indices up to 105 degrees south of I-70 Saturday translate to 105+
degrees area wide Sunday into the middle of next week as upper ridge
axis centers over the state. This also breeds higher confidence for
dry conditions to return until Wednesday-Thursday time frame when a
northern stream shortwave trough pushes a cold front southward into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

MVFR to VFR cigs at terminals as waves of TSRA pass through
sites between 12Z-15Z. Gradual trend is for activity to
dissipate aft 15Z as cigs lift to VFR in the afternoon. Short
term guidance is persistent in scattered TSRA redeveloping in
vicinity of sites in the 20-23Z time frame, persisting into the
early evening hours. Due to uncertainty in coverage and
locations of storms, opted to add PROB30 group at this issuance.
Lowering cigs to low end MVFR are anticipated after the heavier
showers pass.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-
KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-
KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto