865
FXUS63 KTOP 111711
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1111 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today and above average temperatures into the weekend.

- Next chance for rain appears later this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Early morning sfc map showed low pressure across MN with a weak
cold front draped southwest into western KS. Strong pressure
gradient and LLJ has lead to gusty southwest winds ahead of the
boundary in spots this morning. On satellite, a shortwave was
noted across ND/MN in WNW mid level flow with widespread cirrus
noted across the region.

Expect gusty southwest winds this morning to weaken by midday as
the weak cold front sags into the area. Extensive high clouds
should also decrease by afternoon which should help temps rise
into the upper 50s to around 60 over the east to the middle 60s
west.

The 500mb flow pattern will continue to feature a ridge across
the Rockies with WNW flow across the Plains into Thursday. The
ridge axis will shift across the region on Friday when highs
should push into the 70s. A cold front may pass through dry on
Saturday as northern stream energy races east and leaves a
closed low behind over the Southwest. This low is forecast to
eventually move across the region Sunday/Monday with increasing
chcs for rain then.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Weak frontal boundary is currently moving across the area,
with winds becoming lighter (5-10 kts) and more westerly or
northwesterly over the next couple hours. Otherwise, expect mostly
clear skies and VFR conditions, though can`t rule out some shallow
fog towards sunrise in the typical river valley locations.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Reese