278
FXUS63 KTOP 220453
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1053 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool tonight then warming through Sunday.

- Cool temperatures return next week with chances for
  mixed precipitation by late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Surface high pressure was centered over the central Plains early this
afternoon with local winds much weaker compared to Wednesday. The
surface ridge will combine with ridging aloft for quiet weather
through Saturday night. Some periods of high clouds should
become more common by Friday night with upper flow becoming more
zonal with time. Confidence is high in the first widespread
hard freeze in a month tonight, but temperatures moderate
quickly this weekend with notable warm-air advection Saturday
into early Sunday. With northerly low-level trajectories from
south Texas by Saturday morning, moderate moisture return may
lead to some stratus late Saturday night into Sunday but most
solutions keep this cloud thin and still push highs back into
the 60s. Dry and relatively warm mid levels will keep convection
in check despite a frontal passage later in the day.

A modified Canadian airmass takes residence over the region into the
early week with zonal flow persisting. There is some agreement in a
weak wave passing through around Tuesday though moisture quality is
in question and precip chances remain quite low. There is somewhat
better agreement among the operational models in a stronger trough
passing Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day but these solutions remain
quite varied between each other and run to run. Ensemble cluster
analysis shows multiple regimes and a rather equal spread
between troughing and ridging means so predictability remains
low. NBM chance PoPs seem reasonable at this range with some
mention of wintry precip for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions anticipated with no significant changes from the
00Z forecast. Winds remain light generally from the NW through
the morning but then become light and variable by the afternoon
and back to a southerly direction by mid to late afternoon. No
aviation hazards forecast this period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake