879
FXUS63 KTOP 052317
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
617 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) increase this evening
  and overnight. Additional rainfall should be generally less
  than one-half of an inch, but localized areas could receive
  around 1" of rain.

- Several more chances for rain Friday night through Sunday, but plenty
  of dry time will be mixed in as well. The potential for
  severe weather is low through this period.

- Drier conditions expected Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Southwest flow aloft continues over the Central and Southern Plains
this afternoon ahead of a longwave trough across the western CONUS.
A weak shortwave in the southwest flow produced showers across the
area this morning into the afternoon, but this activity has largely
pushed off to the northeast. Sunshine may peak through in some spots
this afternoon, but cloud cover will be the rule and keep
temperatures below-normal in the 70s.

Additional showers and storms become more likely this evening and
overnight. The more robust convection and heaviest rainfall should
be focused along the nose of the low-level jet which is forecast to
reside across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas and steer the
eventual convective complex southeast through the overnight hours.
Further north, showers and storms are expected to impact northeast
Kansas through the overnight hours, but coverage remains somewhat
uncertain. PWATs around 1.5" and a couple hundred J/kg of skinny
CAPE would support efficient rainfall rates in any thunderstorms
that do develop. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts should be
light, under half an inch. Any areas that are impacted by storms and
heavier rainfall rates could see amounts up to 1.5". Any additional
flooding still appears unlikely given the fast progression of
precipitation along with the localized nature of heavier rainfall.
Will need to monitor if any higher rainfall rates impact portions of
Lyon, Osage, Coffey, or Anderson Counties given saturated soils and
elevated rivers in that area.

Showers and storms linger into Friday, becoming more scattered
through the morning. Lift wanes, but a weakly capped airmass through
the day supports isolated to scattered showers and storms. MUCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and shear of 30-35kts could support a stronger storm
or two, but confidence in any severe weather is low. Another
perturbation ejects across the Central Plains Friday night into
Saturday, but again the main convective complex and heaviest
rainfall will remain south of the area. Similar to tonight, coverage
of showers and storms remains in question across the forecast area,
but any storms that do impact the area could produce brief heavy
rainfall. Some CAMs suggest stronger convection across southern
Kansas tries to lift north towards east central Kansas early
Saturday, but confidence in this scenario is low.

Conditions dry out Saturday afternoon/evening ahead of yet another
wave and surface cold front the moves through the area on Sunday.
The better moisture is focused to our south and east, but there
could be enough residual moisture for a few showers or storms with
frontal passage. A stronger wave dives south across the Plains and
Midwest Sunday into Monday, bringing additional chances for showers
and storms to the area late Sunday into Monday. Higher chances for
storms are along the cold front as it stalls across southern Kansas.
Surface ridging is progged to move in by Tuesday with a mid-level
ridge moving overhead on Wednesday. This should lead to a dry period
before another trough approaches the area late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

MVFR stratus is observed moving towards KTOP from KFOE aft 00Z
while KMHK is seeing enough drier air aloft to hold VFR stratus
through the early evening. Storm complex develops across
southern Kansas, moving eastward into the area from 06-14Z.
Short term guidance is varied on degree of lift for sct TSRA to
develop at terminals with much of the widespread precip staying
south of terminals so will maintain the PROB30 mention for
thunder. IFR stratus is progged to develop after the rain passes
at KMHK while KTOP/KFOE maintains MVFR through the afternoon
before gradually becoming scattered.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Prieto