498
FXUS63 KTOP 110841
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues today and tomorrow. Highs in the mid/upper 90s with
heat indices in the 100s. Heat Advisory for most of the area today.

- Front stalls across north-central Kansas Thursday into Saturday.
Slightly cooler near Nebraska border, still heat indices near/above
100 along/south of I-70.

- Rain and storm chances continue each day, highest north of the
  front towards the Nebraska border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

We remain in a quasi-zonal pattern this morning, with seasonably
fast flow over the norther tier states and upper ridging to our
south. At the surface, a stationary front has set up across Nebraska
and Iowa, on the southern periphery of the stronger jet. The warmest
temperature anomalies across the country are focused just south of
this boundary, where hot southwesterly 850 mb flow is present. As is
typical, the hottest temperatures and lowest dewpoints will remain
towards central KS where mixing is greatest. Farther east,
temperatures will stay slightly cooler but dewpoints stay in the
70s. As such, heat indices should climb into the 100s across the
entire area. Have extended the Heat Advisory slightly farther north
as a result. Similar to yesterday, persistent high clouds and an
occasional sprinkle or two may linger across northern KS and keep
temperatures down a few degrees, but it will be hot regardless.

Tomorrow will be more of the same. Temperatures approach 100 across
most of the area, with heat indices above 100 again. Will likely
need another Heat Advisory for parts of the area, but will wait a
bit to see trends in cloud cover across northern KS. As the
stationary front to our north begins to inch south, we`ll likely see
another round of scattered showers and weak storms along the
boundary. Low chance this occurs as early as the daytime Wednesday,
but more likely overnight Wednesday as isentropic ascent increases
near the Nebraska border. Storms should remain high-based and
scattered, keeping the overall severe threat low, but can`t rule out
an occasional strong wind gust or small hail.

Thursday into Saturday, the front will only slowly inch southward
across the area. It should remain quite hot south of the boundary,
with heat indices still above 100. North of the boundary
temperatures will be more dependent on cloud cover but still should
climb into the low 90s each day. Upper support for convection will
be more limited, but scattered showers and storms will remain
possible each day towards northern KS. Guidance has come to a better
consensus that the front will finally get a stronger southward push
by Sunday. There are still differences in exactly how much cooler
the airmass behind the front will be, but we should see temperatures
get back closer to average for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Some marginal LLWS will remain possible overnight, but
will leave out mention for now as the LLJ is slightly weaker and
less veered compared to last night. Otherwise, winds stay around 10-
12 kts from the south, becoming a bit gustier during the daytime
hours. Ceilings stay VFR with just occasional high clouds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Highest Minimum Temperature Records

August 11
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          82 (1913)         80
Concordia       77 (2021)         79

August 12
              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          81 (1913)         79
Concordia       80 (1943)         78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ011-
KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Reese