538
FXUS63 KTOP 081637
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1037 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain through the day today, best chances come this
  evening into early Saturday morning.

- Total rainfall of 0.5-1.25" expected across the area through
  Saturday morning.

- Seasonable temperatures continue with highs in the upper 50s
  to low 60s this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The closed upper low across the southwest CONUS is inching
eastward this morning with a band of precipitation lifting north
across Kansas. Precipitation has been void of any lightning
given the absence of instability and rain has been limited in
intensity as a result. This band of precipitation continues to
lift north through the morning with a break in rain expected
later this morning into the early afternoon as the closed low
stalls, takes on a negative tilt, and becomes vertically
stacked. The best push of showers and storms comes this evening
into early Saturday as the low finally ejects northeast across
the Plains. PWATs will be at or above record values with a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE leading to some heavier rainfall rates
(around 0.5" per hour) at times. The progressive nature of the
heaviest rain will limit overall accumulations with amounts
between 0.5-1.25" favored across the area. Probabilities of 1"+
are highest (40-60%) in two areas: across north central Kansas
where several rounds of rain are more likely and across east
central Kansas where better instability will reside, leading to
higher rainfall rates. Nonetheless, any flooding concerns are
very low with precipitation winding down Saturday morning.

Clearing skies are expected Saturday afternoon as the dry slot of
this system moves in, although wrap around moisture looks to keep
northern areas under at least partly cloudy skies. Eastern Kansas
has a higher likelihood of seeing clearing skies by the afternoon
and highs will warm into the low 60s. In areas that clouds hold on
through much of the day, highs will only reach the low 50s.

The system departs towards the Great Lakes for Sunday with flow
becoming zonal to begin next week. A minor perturbation shunts a
weak cold front/surface trough through the area on Monday, but
southerly low-level flow returns quickly on Tuesday.
Temperatures remain at or slightly above normal into next week.
Another trough is progged to move through the Plains by the
middle of next week, although differences in track and timing of
this feature remain. Regardless, the passage of this trough
will bring our next chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The forecast is evolving as expected and there are not a lot of
changes to the prev forecast. As the low pressure system lifts
into southwest KS, a axis of moisture is forecast to lift into
northeast KS bringing periods of showers. There is some modest
instability (MUCAPE around 250 J/kg) so there could be some
lightning. But feel this should remain pretty isolated and will
leave TS out of the forecast for now. VFR conditions should hold
on until the moisture advection kicks in. Then deteriorating
conditions are expected after 02Z. Aside from some minor timing
variations, confidence in the forecast is good.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters