035
FXUS63 KTOP 040535
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flooding continue across portions of central
  and eastern Kansas through this evening.

- More showers and storms Thursday into Friday and again around
  Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Heavy rain and flooding continue this afternoon across portions
of eastern Kansas. The cold front is currently just northwest of
Topeka and is slowly moving southeast. Ahead of the front,
strong forcing and moisture advection is leading to repeated
rounds of thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are very efficient
rain producers with up to around three inch-an-hour rainfall
rates. Widespread flooding is ongoing from Wichita up through
Kansas City. Several more hours of rain is expected across areas
that already received upwards of 5-7 inches of rain today
(south and east of the Turnpike). The front will finally exit
the area around 7 pm tonight.

A reprieve from the rain is in store for tomorrow with a cool
and dry day. However, this break will be short-lived. Another
round of rain is expected to develop across the central Plains
Thursday into Friday. A more diffuse pattern is expected for
this round compared to the well organized and strongly forced
system we experienced today. But with PWATs still near the
climatological max for this time of year given the continued
Gulf moisture transport, we could see heavy rain once again.
Model guidance varies greatly in timing, location and amount of
rain given the more weakly forced nature of this event, but
around an of rain is possible across portions of central and
eastern Kansas Thursday into Friday. Cooler temperatures (70s to
low 80s) will prevail through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

MVFR CIGs at KTOP and KFOE should begin to improve over the
next hour or two as stratus advects east. Expect some light
mist/rain at these sites over the next hour with the stratus
before stratus fully clears. Beyond this, expect VFR conditions
through the TAF with light north/northeasterly winds and high
cloud cover.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Griesemer