629
FXUS63 KTOP 081131
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain through the day today, best chances come this
  evening into early Saturday morning.

- Total rainfall of 0.5-1.25" expected across the area through
  Saturday morning.

- Seasonable temperatures continue with highs in the upper 50s
  to low 60s this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The closed upper low across the southwest CONUS is inching
eastward this morning with a band of precipitation lifting north
across Kansas. Precipitation has been void of any lightning
given the absence of instability and rain has been limited in
intensity as a result. This band of precipitation continues to
lift north through the morning with a break in rain expected
later this morning into the early afternoon as the closed low
stalls, takes on a negative tilt, and becomes vertically
stacked. The best push of showers and storms comes this evening
into early Saturday as the low finally ejects northeast across
the Plains. PWATs will be at or above record values with a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE leading to some heavier rainfall rates
(around 0.5" per hour) at times. The progressive nature of the
heaviest rain will limit overall accumulations with amounts
between 0.5-1.25" favored across the area. Probabilities of 1"+
are highest (40-60%) in two areas: across north central Kansas
where several rounds of rain are more likely and across east
central Kansas where better instability will reside, leading to
higher rainfall rates. Nonetheless, any flooding concerns are
very low with precipitation winding down Saturday morning.

Clearing skies are expected Saturday afternoon as the dry slot of
this system moves in, although wrap around moisture looks to keep
northern areas under at least partly cloudy skies. Eastern Kansas
has a higher likelihood of seeing clearing skies by the afternoon
and highs will warm into the low 60s. In areas that clouds hold on
through much of the day, highs will only reach the low 50s.

The system departs towards the Great Lakes for Sunday with flow
becoming zonal to begin next week. A minor perturbation shunts a
weak cold front/surface trough through the area on Monday, but
southerly low-level flow returns quickly on Tuesday.
Temperatures remain at or slightly above normal into next week.
Another trough is progged to move through the Plains by the
middle of next week, although differences in track and timing of
this feature remain. Regardless, the passage of this trough
will bring our next chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions expected through the day with conditions deteriorating
this evening into Saturday morning. There could be some showers
this afternoon near terminals, but the main band of showers and
isolated thunderstorms moves into terminals this evening, bringing
MVFR, possibly IFR, cigs and reduced VSBY. Input a best guess
on timing of lowest cigs and VSBY, but this will need to be
refined with later issuances. Winds increase from the east
through the day, becoming gusty this afternoon and gradually
veering to the ESE by the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan