211
FXUS63 KTOP 052315
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
515 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle and freezing drizzle continue to end this afternoon.
  Dense fog likely to develop in its wake tonight, especially
  towards central Kansas.

- Drier with temperatures slightly above average through Saturday.

- Turning colder by Sunday. Will have to monitor next week for
  snow chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Another chilly and gloomy day across northeast Kansas, with drizzle
and low clouds locked in to the north of a quasi-stationary
front to our south. Fortunately temperatures are gradually
rising nearer to and above freezing, and drizzle is gradually
ending as a shortwave trough axis crosses the area. So will
expire the Winter Weather Advisory at 3pm, as any lingering
impacts across far northeast Kansas should be very limited in
scope. While drizzle will end shortly, and visibilities may
slightly improve over the evening, expect fog to build back in
from the south towards midnight, as winds become more southerly.
Have issued a dense fog advisory for southern portions of the
forecast area, where confidence is highest in dense fog. May
eventually need to expand this farther north, though confidence
here is not quite as great. At any rate, fog will clear from
northwest to southeast tomorrow morning as a cold front sweeps
through and brings in some drier air.

Despite a couple of weak fronts, the next few days will see near to
slightly above average temperatures as flow continues to be mostly
zonal. More sun and deeper mixing will help high temperatures climb
into the mid/upper 40s. By Saturday, things will begin to change as
a stronger shortwave moves across the Central Plains. Surface low
pressure will slide somewhere across southern Kansas, eventually
pushing a cold front through. The bulk of the upper forcing will
stay to our north, keeping us dry, but there is again a weak signal
for drizzle Saturday ahead of the cold front. Fortunately there is
strong agreement that temperatures will stay above freezing this
time.

Colder temperatures move in behind the front for Sunday and into
next week. Specifics for next week are naturally uncertain 5-7 days
out, but the general pattern looks cold and wet. At the surface,
strong high pressure will be to our north, with northeasterly low-
level flow supplying plenty of cold air. Broad west-southwest flow
will be in place aloft, with repeated shortwaves bringing moisture
northwards into the colder air. At this point, there is high
confidence (80-95%) that any precipitation will be snow. The main
question is the strength and track of the various shortwaves, which
will determine if we see snow or stay dry. For what it`s worth, long
range guidance is favoring at least some snow, with over 60% of
ensemble members indicating at least 1" of snow at some point Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

IFR to LIFR cigs are expected through 12Z, then improving to
VFR. VSBYS will range from MVFR to IFR with LIFR possible at
MHK. Winds light southerly becoming southwest after 06Z, then
shifting to the northwest around 10kts in the 11Z-14Z time
period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday
for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...53