196
FXUS63 KTOP 012019
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for Wednesday through Friday,
though headlines beyond that time frame may still need to be
considered.

- Warm lows in the middle and upper 70s keep record warm minimums in
play through Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather persists at least through the holiday weekend,
perhaps looking slightly less hot by middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Upper ridge dominates the Central/Southern Plains into much of the
southeastern US, while an amplified trough is off the Pacific coast
and another upper low tracks across Ontario. A more subtle
perturbation is noted off the High Plains, leading to a weak area of
low pressure in NE/IA. Tropical Storm Edouard is noted off the coast
of TX/LA. The southwest flow plus the ample sunshine under the
persistent ridge is leading to another afternoon with temperatures
in the upper 90s up to 100 degrees with heat indices a couple of
degrees higher. A persistence forecast should do fairly well into
Wednesday, although we look to see a bit of an increase in dew
points as the tropical system comes further inland and the southerly
flow brings that moisture northward. This should especially be the
case Thursday and Friday. As such, felt that the 50th percentile of
dew points would be more representative than the drier solutions
presented in the higher resolution models. Similar temperatures with
slightly higher dew points would push us closer to heat indices
around 105. Confidence in reaching that criteria is highest Thursday
and Friday, and may not be quite as widespread Wednesday. Still
opted to join northern and eastern neighbors in a Heat Advisory
starting Wednesday given impacts to outdoor activities and risk for
heat stress and illnesses even with borderline conditions.

Beyond Friday, the upper ridge looks to retrograde to the west with
its center right over the forecast area through the Labor Day
weekend. Long-range models start to show some diverging in the
solutions, resulting in some variation in how far south the upper
ridge will get pushed. With that in mind, high temperatures look to
remain in the 90s through the middle of next week. Ensembles show a
small range of only a few degrees through the weekend, and a need
for additional headlines beyond Friday will need to be considered
given the favorable pattern for heat to continue. The range widens
slightly into the middle of the week with the varying solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions persist. Some gusts at times should continue through
the afternoon before winds diminish with sunset. While a 30-35 kt LLJ
forms overhead during the overnight hours, LLWS looks pretty
marginal, even more so as long as sfc winds stay up. Winds return to
around 10-12 kts by the end of this forecast period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Record highest minimum temperature information:

                      Record                   Forecast

September 2  Topeka     80, set in 2011            77
             Concordia  79, set in 1929            78

September 3  Topeka     77, set in 1939            78
             Concordia  80, set in 1947            79

September 4  Topeka     78, set in 2014            76
 Concordia  79, set in 1954            76

September 5  Topeka     76, set in 1983            75
 Concordia  78, set in 1899            76

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Drake/Poage/Picha