478
FXUS63 KTOP 290458
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lows in the low to mid 30s tonight across north-central Kansas will
  support frost formation. A Frost Advisory has been issued.

- Below-normal temperatures continue through the workweek.

- Another chance (20-40%) for rain comes on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A shortwave moving through the quasi-zonal flow has produced
scattered showers across the area this afternoon, but activity is
lifting to the northeast. Dry conditions are expected this evening
and overnight as the wave departs and surface high pressure builds
into the region. Light winds and clearing skies will allow temperatures
to fall into the low to mid 30s across north central Kansas. Some
guidance suggests passing clouds will continue through the overnight
hours which may keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than
forecast. Even so, the NBM has a 60-80% chance of temperatures
falling to or below 36 degrees across north central Kansas and a
20-30% chance for temperatures to reach freezing in northern
Republic and Washington Counties. Given susceptible vegetation
and favorable conditions for frost formation, have issued a Frost
Advisory for portions of north central Kansas where confidence
is highest in temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.

The cool pattern holds through the rest of the workweek with highs
in the 60s and lows in generally in the 30s. Temperatures could
fall low enough to support frost again Friday and Saturday
mornings. A subtle perturbation sparks scattered showers and
storms across southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. This
activity may make it into north central Kansas and produce some
light rain before decaying. A better chance (20-40%) for showers
and storms comes Thursday as mid-level energy ejects across the
Central Plains. Forcing may be weak, but sufficient for showers
and storms to develop. Hazardous weather is not expected given
minimal instability (MUCAPE of 200-300 J/kg) and weak shear.

Northwest flow aloft takes hold this weekend with southerly winds
bumping temperatures back into the 70s on Sunday. Predictability
decreases early next week, as shown by increasing spread in NBM
temperatures. A few passing perturbations and fronts leading to
at least low-end precipitation chances beginning Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A northerly wind is expected to keep some mixing in the boundary
layer to mitigate fog potential while also bringing dry air into the
area. So a VFR forecast is expected to persist through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ020-
KSZ021-KSZ034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters