200
FXUS63 KTOP 212346
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues today and Friday with highs in the upper
  80s and lower 90s.

- There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms Friday
  night into Saturday morning as a cold front moves south.

- Cooler weather with a taste of fall is expected across the region
  into next week with off and on chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The cold front is still on track to move through our area
Saturday. There are some minor discrepancies between models on
exact timing and precipitation coverage, but generally,
scattered thunderstorms are possible starting Friday evening
across far northern Kansas and activity should be south of the
area by late Saturday afternoon. Some of the CAMs are trying to
form some sort of surface-based complex along the front Friday
evening across southern Nebraska and the complex weakening and
scattering apart as it enters northern Kansas. The bulk of the
models have most of the precipitation remaining elevated, behind
the front as it moves through. Forecast soundings show a rather
dry boundary-layer and limited elevated instability. Therefore,
if any robust storms were to develop, it would have to be
during the Friday evening surface-based scenario that some of
the models are showing. Otherwise, just some general
thunderstorms are expected during the morning/afternoon
Saturday.

For the rest of the weekend and into next week cooler air will
filter into the region. Highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the
50s and 60s are favored through the week. With northwest flow
aloft and several mid/upper-level waves riding through the mean
flow, near daily precipitation chances are possible. However,
whether we will see much precipitation or if it will be just off
to our south remains in question and depends on the strength of
the northern Plains surface high and how deep and progressive
the Great Lakes upper-level trough is through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There may be some
patchy ground fog, between 10Z-13Z FRI, at KTOP and KFOE as
morning lows reach down or below the cross over temperatures and
T/Td depression reach below 2 degrees. Few to Sct CU with bases
of around 4000 feet will develop Friday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Gargan