946
FXUS63 KTOP 251102
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
602 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Heavy rainfall and scattered flooding could occur as a system moves
 through Today and Tonight.

-Heat then builds in this weekend and sticks around through next
 week. Afternoon heat indices will reach the 100 to 110 degree
 range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air
analysis showed an upper level Trough north of Lake Superior with a
trough axis extending southwest into central IA. A broad upper Ridge
was centered over the Big Bend Region of TX. A low amplitude upper
trough was rounding the SW TX upper ridge axis and was located
across northern NM and southern CO border.

The 6Z surface map showed a weak cold front/outflow boundary
extending from central IA, southwest into north central KS, then
east into northeast CO. Showers and a few thunderstorms were
developing along and north of the boundary across north central KS.
So far these storms were not severe and some of the stronger
updrafts my produce small hail and brief heavy rainfall through the
morning hours. A lee surface low was located across east central CO.


Today through Saturday:

The mid level perturbation across the CO/NM border will shift east
across KS this afternoon and this evening and will provide ascent
across the area this afternoon. The surface low across east central
CO will shift east across the state this afternoon and Tonight. The
surface low will move generally move east, south of I- 70. The
surface cold front should become stationary south of I-70 and may
move north as a warm front through Tonight across the east central
KS, though only the RAP and NAM12 show this forecast. The other CAMS
keep the surface front just south of the CWA. A cold front will push
southeast on the west side of the surface low and will move
southeast of the CWA during the mid morning hours of Friday. This
should bring an end to the rainfall.

Once again, most of the CAMs show the stronger instability axis
extending along the OK/KS border west-northwest into portions of
southwest KS. Most CAMs, show the boundary slowly drifting southward
this morning and through the afternoon hours. At this time the
greater chance for severe thunderstorms will be across south central
KS and north central OK, expanding east into southeast KS. On the
northern periphary of the severe thunderstorms complex,
thunderstorms may develop along or north of the surface front. Some
of these storms may be strong to severe given MLCAPES of around 1200
J/KG and effective shear of 40 KTS. The primary hazard for any
severe thunderstorm along and south of I-70 will be isolated damaging
wind gusts, small hail and heavy rainfall. If the RAP and NAM13
models are accurate forecasting the boundary moving north across east
central KS Tonight, then additional thunderstorms through the night
could be strong to severe, with small hail, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

There will be the potential for heavy rainfall this afternoon and
Tonight but will be south of I-70. PWs will be 1.5 to 2 inches. The
HREF 24 hour rainfall forecasts a probability over 50 percent
along and southeast of the KS turnpike. The probabilities decrease
the farther north you go across the CWA. I will keep the current
flash flood watch in effect.

Once the surface cold front moves southeast of the area Friday
morning, the chances for strong to severe storms will end.

Friday, there may be a few showers in the morning but the rain should
end. An H5 trough will move into the western US on Friday. The
surface front will stall out across northern OK.

Saturday, as the H5 Trough shifts east into the central Rockies on
Saturday, a lee surface trough will deepen across the northern and
central high Plains. the Stronger low-level southerly flow will
cause the surface front to push north as a warm front. The warm
front will move north into central NE by 12Z SUN. I cannot rule out
a few showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, as the boundary shifts
northward across the CWA. A down stream H5 ridge across east TX/LA
will amplify north-northwest across the eastern southern Plains late
Saturday.

Enjoy the last days of cooler temperatures, with upper 70s to lower
80s Today and Friday. Saturday will start to warm up into the mid
80s to lower 90s.

Sunday through Thursday:

The extended range models are in good agreement amplifying the H5
ridge just east of the area, and then by late next week retrograding
the center of the H5 ridge axis west into the central Plains. The H5
trough across the west will remain across the west central US with
shorter wave length H5 troughs lifting northeast into the northern
Plains. The chance for showers and thunderstorms look low. High
temperatures will reach the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints in the
mid 70s across eastern KS. Afternoon heat indices will be in the 100
to 110 degree range with the highest indicies across east central
KS. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid to upper 70s. Due to
the multiple days of high heat indicies, an excessive heat warning
may be needed for a large portion of the area next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

There may be some scattered rain showers around the terminals this
morning. This afternoon several CAM models show a band of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the terminals this afternoon. This
evening MVFR stratus will move in with some rain showers across the
terminals. The RAP shows ceilings may drop down to IFR criteria late
Tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan