215
FXUS63 KTOP 280543
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1243 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire Weather conditions remain critical through tomorrow. Red
  Flag warnings in place through Saturday (See details in Fire
  Weather section below).

- Next chance for moisture appears to set up across portions of
  the area by late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Warm tomorrow through Tuesday. Slightly cooler for a couple
  days then back above normal by the end of the week.

- Next Friday is starting to show signals that more quality
  moisture and dynamic setup may finally bring much need rain
  chances to the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The upper air pattern across the CONUS features a broad trough over
the northeastern CONUS with more quasi-zonal flow back through the
northern Plains into the Pacific northwest region. A broad area of
weaker anticyclonic flow is spread across the southern CONUS into the
Gulf and northern Mexico regions. A broad modified surface ridge and
high pressure cell expands into the region tonight sliding through
by around sunrise tomorrow morning.

Warm weather returns Saturday through Tuesday ahead of the cold
frontal system then cooler for a couple days before warming back to
above normal by the end of next week. As a broad ridge mainly in the
form of quasi-zonal flow sets up into the day tomorrow, lee
troughing intensifies and sets up strong return flow from the
south/southwest. Deep mixing will lead to a very dry afternoon and
evening with strong winds helping to lead to critical fire weather
conditions. Similar conditions could last to some degree through
Monday and Tuesday of next week.

A modified cold front is forecast to push through the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday but any meaningful moisture remains to be seen
as guidance doesn`t generate a strong QPF signal directly across the
area. Although the GFS does suggest that a mid-level shortwave
emerges behind the frontal system sometime late Wednesday into
Thursday morning setting up resulting isentropic ascent across the
region and at least some chance for precipitation to develop with
adequate forcing in place. Currently this appears to be low
probability occurrence so overall POPs around or below 40 percent
seem reasonable.

A broad western trough is being advertised by major global models
into next Friday which may end up being strong enough to transport
more quality moisture poleward. However, the variability in overall
timing, position and intensity of the upper trough has yet to be
resolved leading to a wide spread of how the baroclinic zone
interacts with the best quality moisture. Expect the long range to
change and possibly substantially.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light and variable
winds will become southerly after sunrise. South winds will
increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts of 22 to 28 KTS through the
late morning and afternoon hours. Wind gusts will diminish
after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Red Flag warning remains in place through this evening with dry
fuels and sufficient wind and low RH in place across the area.

Saturday the winds increase by late morning into midday from the
south/southwest. Expect winds to range from 15-25 mph sustained with
gusts up to around 40 mph. Minimum RH values into the afternoon fall
to as low as 10 percent deeply mixed BL develops and temperatures
rise into the 60s. Expecting several hours of critical fire weather
conditions as a result paired with sufficiently dry fuels still in
place. Any fire that starts can be expected to burn efficiently and
spread rapidly with erratic fire behavior and thus become difficult
to contain. Simply DO NOT burn on Saturday and ensure any previous
fires have been fully extinguished.

Sunday may still see elevated fire weather conditions but RH values
may not as low as previous days so not outlooking at this time with
a watch or additional Red Flag warming. Winds will still be strong
from the south which may be an offsetting factor for higher RH so
can`t completely rule out headlines may still be needed during a
later forecast cycle.

Monday and Tuesday may also see continued elevated fire weather risk
across the area as similar pairing of elements are looking to remain
in place across the area and no real meaningful moisture across the
area until the cold frontal passage sometime Tuesday night into
Wednesday and that depends on the moisture return into the area
which as indicated by the long-range dewpoint forecast appears low
right now with deeper moisture situated to the southeast of the
region.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Gargan
FIRE WEATHER...Drake