474
FXUS63 KTOP 082247
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid through late afternoon today then again in
  southeastern locations Saturday afternoon.

- Small risk for severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and
  evening mainly in northeastern locations.

- Heavy rainfall and isolated flooding potential Sunday
  afternoon into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Breezy south winds and very warm air has lead to one of the hottest
days of the summer (so far anyway) with 19Z temps in the mid to
upper 90s in much of the area. Dewpoints have not dropped much in
the humid lower layers with 19Z heat indices in the upper 90s to
around 105. Isolated very light precipitation was indicated on radar
data early this morning and again this afternoon where modest
isentropic ascent combined with moisture around 15000 feet AGL
for weak convection.

Heat is the main concern early in the forecast. A weak front slowly
pushes southeast into the area late tonight into the weekend. All
guidance is very similar with slightly cooler low-level temps
Saturday even ahead of the front. This still keeps highs in the
middle 90s across southern areas with dewpoints again around 70.
There is enough confidence in the heat and humidity to extend the
Heat Advisory for far southeastern locations but most areas will
again be hot again. There is a weaker signal for more isentropic
lift around 320 K through Saturday afternoon which should at
least lead to some high cloud and help mitigate the heat. Can`t
rule out isolated high-based convection in this regime though
any mention seems overdone.

Precipitation chances become more concerning late Saturday into
early next week. Weak convergence along the front with little upper
support and some MLCIN remaining keep deep moist convective
potential in check Saturday afternoon. Some increase in convergence
takes place Saturday night but greater potential should come Sunday
night into early Monday as a weak upper trough axis moves through
and the surface boundary likely nearby. This trough looks less
robust than earlier runs. Precipitable water values rise to near 2
inches, though early August is the climatological peak in PW and
NAEFS and ENS ESAT values do not suggest much extreme event
potential locally. Various models suggest some isolated heavy
rain and this seems the most likely outcome at this point, with
this potentially leading to very localized flooding.

The upper trough axis exits late Monday with brief northwest flow
aiding in a cooler Monday through Wednesday period. The upper ridge
builds northeast in the late week with warmer temperatures
returning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Isolated convection across northeast KS looks to remain north of
the terminals. The RAP and NAM show what weak isentropic lift
there is moving east of the area this evening. There may be
additional lift in mid levels for an isolated shower or storm.
But the probability of it impacting the terminals is to low to
include in the forecast. The low level jet will increase
overnight, but turbulent mixing is forecast to mitigate low
level wind shear. If surface winds decouple, then wind shear
will need to be added to the forecast. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Wolters