256
FXUS63 KTOP 250839
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
239 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreasing chances for precipitation on Wednesday as a system
  moves through the region into Thanksgiving.

- Arctic air filters in by late next weekend with highs near
  freezing and lows in the teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Early this morning a mid level trough was moving across the Plains
while another trough was located over the eastern Pacific. The
surface front that moved through on Sunday was located from
southeast Iowa to low pressure over northwest Texas at 08Z.
Extensive cloud cover this morning will decrease later this morning
and afternoon as high pressure builds southward into Kansas and
drier air moves in on northerly winds. Highs today will be more than
20 to 25 degrees cooler than Sunday in most places, with highs in
the 40 to mid 40s. With the north winds today wind chills in the 30s
will be common through the day as well despite sunshine this
afternoon.

On Tuesday the surface high moves off to the east with southerly
return flow allowing a slight moderation in temperatures into the
upper 40s to lower 50s. This will be short lived as low pressure
develops in southeast Colorado on Tuesday then moves into southwest
Oklahoma by early Wednesday morning. Winds will shift to the north
across Kansas by Wednesday morning. A zonal pattern in the mid
levels will start the day as shortwave energy ejects eastward across
the Central Plains. Models differ with timing and the strength of
the trough moving through the region. Model QPF from deterministic
and ensembles continues to decrease for Wednesday. Also there has
been a trend to move the precipitation out faster and end it
Wednesday evening. Probabilities are generally 20 percent or less in
most areas. Ensembles show the probability of receiving at least
0.01 inches of rain has decreased to 20 percent or less Wednesday
afternoon. Thermal profiles show column will be warm enough for all
rain on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. SO no impacts for holiday
travel are expected at this time. Another surge of cold air moves in
later on Wednesday which will keep highs mainly in the 30s for
Thanksgiving day.

Models continue to differ on the placement of a clipper in the
northwest flow and a swath of light snow. ECMWF continues to favor
this occurring over Iowa into northeast Missouri, while the GFS and
GDPS show it over northeast Kansas into Missouri. Have maintained a
dry forecast and will continue to monitor trends for possible
inclusion on Saturday. In the wake of this system on Saturday Arctic
high pressure will settle over the Plains bringing the coldest air
of the season so far into central and eastern Kansas. Highs Sunday
and Monday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, while low
temperatures will be in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 946 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Northwest winds have picked up behind the cold front, and will
remain 10-15 kts with higher gusts through Monday afternoon. MVFR
stratus is currently approaching the terminals from the northwest
and will stick around overnight before clearing mid-morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Reese