564
FXUS63 KTOP 042237
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers end by Saturday afternoon.

- Small chance for light snow in east-central Kansas Saturday night
  into Sunday morning.

- Temperatures remain cool through the weekend; warming trend early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

South-southwest upper flow continues over the central Plains ahead
of a slow-moving upper trough over the southern Rockies. Scattered
showers persist over eastern Kansas and see little reason for this
to end anytime soon. A northern branch upper wave sliding east
across the northern Plains brings in drier air from northwest to
southeast Saturday for decreasing precipitation chances Saturday
with some afternoon sunshine but breezy north winds keep highs
around 50. The ejection of the main southern branch low Saturday
night into Sunday will need to be monitored but most guidance keeps
it to the south. Even the farther north GFS has cloud heights above
8000 feet AGL while attempting to produce moderate precipitation. If
any precip were to fall, it would likely be light snow. Will keep
NBM`s small PoPs at this point for east-central Kansas.

A northern branch upper wave digging southeast into the northeast
states brings a backdoor cold front into the area around Monday.
Guidance shows a considerable spread in temperatures but highs around
60 seem reasonable at this point. Northwest upper flow takes hold
for the midweek with modifying temperatures and some small chances for
precipitation with associated shortwaves Tuesday night and Wednesday
night. Upper ridging builds east into the region for warm and dry
conditions late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Conditions are forecast to remain rather steady state until
a cold front with increased dry air advection pushes through
mid-morning Saturday. The dry air advection should lift CIGS
above 3KFT while northerly winds remain gusty. Will keep a
PROB30 in the forecast this evening with the CAMS showing light
rain possible. Main impact would be some TEMPO MVFR VISBY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Wolters