485
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
608 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning continues today and tomorrow, with heat
indices 109-114 degrees each afternoon/evening.

- Trending closer to average beginning Tuesday, especially by the
weekend.

- Low (10-50%) rain chances each day beginning Tuesday, with the
best opportunity arriving Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A strong upper high remains in place across the Central Plains,
supporting our current heat wave. This morning`s TOP sounding showed
500 mb heights of 597 dam, not too far off max climatological
values. Surface moisture also continues to be deeper and more
resistant than guidance was depicting a few days ago, with
widespread upper 70s dewpoints still in place across most of eastern
KS. As such, hot and humid conditions are expected to stay in place
today, with heat indices climbing above 110 in most places. Do
expect slightly deeper mixing tomorrow as winds turn a bit more
southwesterly, so we should see our warmest day of the stretch but
with dewpoints a few degrees lower. Regardless, heat indices should
climb near or above 110 degrees area-wide, so extended the Extreme
Heat Warning for one more day.

By Tuesday, the upper high will begin to weaken and shift westward
as a shortwave trough drops southeast over the Great Lakes. This
will also help push a weak cold front southward across the area.
Particularly with potential for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms behind the front, this will help temperatures cool
down compared to the prior few days. Confidence in these cooler
temperatures has increased enough to trim the Extreme Heat Watch out
of northern Kansas, but have kept it in place across east-central
KS. May be able to cancel this as well if confidence further
increases in clouds/rain behind the front.

Wednesday into Thursday will continue to see low rain chances as
another weak mid-level perturbation increases lift north of
Tuesday`s frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue to be
dependent on coverage of rain and clouds, likely staying in the 80s
with more clouds and rising into the low/mid 90s with more sun. But
overall, does look less oppressive in terms of heat index compared
to today and Monday. Good indication in ensemble guidance for a
stronger shortwave to drop southeast across the Midwest late Thursday
into early Friday. This should bring our best chance for scattered
showers and storms, followed by a more notable cold front. Behind the
front high temperatures in the 80s seem probable, along with at
least a modest drop in dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail. The LLJ increases to around 35 kts at
1000-1500ft AGL between 06-12z, but elevated surface winds
should preclude LLWS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening
for KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan