214
FXUS63 KTOP 010458
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1058 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Midnight brings increasing clouds and temperatures in the low
  30s

- Warming trend returns Saturday through Monday with above
  normal temperatures continuing through mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Abundant sunshine and light westerly winds have brought temperatures
toward 50 across much of the area by mid day this New Years Eve.
Next cold shot evident on satellite and observations as a cold
air mass and low clouds are dropping quickly across South
Dakota. This front moves into eastern Kansas, shifting the
winds around to the north and bringing colder temperatures in
the lower 30s with clouds right around the midnight hour.

Southwest winds redevelop by mid day New Years Day, and should
clear out any lingering low clouds to the northeast, and bring
high temperatures back into the upper 30s to 40s. A small system
slides across Oklahoma on Friday and wraps the airmass back
into our area on Friday along with similar highs to Thursday.
Warm advection returns for the weekend, with highs in the
40s/50s for Saturday and a few degrees higher on Sunday, with
Monday warmer still with many locations likely in the 60s. THe
uptick in winds on Monday will bring some increase to fire
danger before calming down Monday night. With the broad upper
trof on the west coast on the approach into early next week,
the Central Plains remain in an above normal temperature
pattern, along with low to no chances for rain through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Edge of IFR stratus is currently approaching the KS/NE
border, and extrapolating the motion it appears it will arrive at
the main TAF sites sometime around 0730 UTC. Still uncertain how
much fog will develop within this stratus, but short term guidance
remains consistent in some form of visibility reductions. As the
front continues south this morning, fog looks most likely to move
away to the south as well, with the low stratus clearing out around
mid-day as light winds become more southerly.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Reese