720
FXUS63 KTOP 061805
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1205 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with
  large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

- Dry weather returns this weekend with above average
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Short term forecast...

Today through Sunday:

Today through Tonight, an upper Trough across western CO and
the Four Corners region will shear apart with the northern
branch lifting northeast into NE Tonight and phasing with an H5
trough moving east across the northern Plains and southern
Canada. The southern section of the H5 trough will amplify and
retrograde southwest into northwest Mexico.


The elevated thunderstorms may continue across the southeast
counties into the afternoon hours. There was some clearing
across the central counties of the CWA but the stratus is racing
back northwest, so most areas will become cloudy again by late
this morning.

This afternoon, if the stratus holds through the afternoon hours,
then it will be unlikely that discrete supercells develop within
the warm sector. However, if there is deep enough mixing there could
be areas that clear this afternoon, especially up along the NE
border. The latest HRRR does show thunderstorms developing across
northern Riley, Washington, and Marshall Counties by 20Z. If
surface based supercells develop, the curved hodographs would
result in streamwise horizontal vorticity in the lowest 2 KM.
The MLCAPE could increase to 1000-1500 J/KG. So, there may be a
window for discrete supercell across central and eastern
counties of the CWA. Most CAM forecast soundings do not show
steep low-level lapse rates and if the clouds hold, the storms
that develop in the warm sector, maybe much weaker and slightly
elevated updrafts. If discrete surface based supercells do
develop then expect 2 inch or greater hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. The best timing for any discrete supercells within
the warm sector will be 3 PM through 7 PM.

A surface cold front will be moving into north central KS later this
afternoon and scattered storms will develop then congeal into a line
of storms. There will be a slight component of 0-3KM flow, 20
KTS, perpendicular to the line, which could cause rear inflow
jets to develop within the line, and may be a few mesovortex
weak and brief tornadoes but the environment is not very
conducive for mesovortex tornadoes to develop. Therefore the
main hazard would be localized 60 to 70 MPH wind gusts. If the
cold pool along the line helps to surge the front faster to the
southeast, then the line of storms may become undercut by
outflow. But new updrafts should develop ahead of the outflow,
and with the stronger southwesterly 50 kts winds at 700mb,
momentum transfer in the storm`s downdraft along the line could
cause some isolated 60 MPH wind gusts along the line as it
moves east across northeast and east central KS this evening.


Saturday, expect cooler temperatures behind the surface front.
Saturday highs will be in the lower to mid 50s with clearing skies.


Long term forecast...

Sunday through Friday:

Sunday through Tuesday, the mid level flow will become more zonal
and southerly winds will help highs to warm into the mid to upper
60s Sunday, lower to mid 70s Monday and Tuesdays. An H5 trough will
move east across the northern and central Plains on Tuesday, which
will bring a surface front southeast across the CWA on Tuesday.
There may be a chance for showers and storms along the front
Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. However, the southern
stream H5 trough over the southwest US looks to move east
across TX and remain south of the CWA.

Wednesday, will be cooler behind the front, with highs in the mid to
upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday, highs will warm back into the 60s. A stronger
front will push southeast across the CWA Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The MVFR stratus has moved across the terminals and the ceilings
may mix above 3000 feet late this afternoon. I cannot rule out
some isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon but the better
chance will be line of storms that will move across the
terminals this evening. After 5Z SAT, the line will pass east of
all terminals. Expect MVFR ceilings through the night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan