201
FXUS63 KTOP 072236
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
536 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing temps likely once again late tonight, prompting the
  headline to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning.

- Scattered showers cannot be ruled out over far eastern Kansas
  early Wed. or Thursday morning.

- Overall temps warm above normal in the 60-70s throughout the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Elongated upper trough axis bypasses the region this afternoon,
carrying a weak frontal boundary southward through the state. Temps
have quickly warmed into the lower 60s south of I-70 whereas highs
around 60 are likely as the CAA battles the BL mixing where
warmer temps reside at 850 mb. Gusty northerly winds from 15 to
20 mph sustained should wane by early evening as the passing
sfc high veers light winds to the southeast Tuesday morning. Mid
clouds and any insulation should hold off overnight while a
decent sfc inversion layer cools temps to near freezing after
midnight. Therefore have decided to go ahead with a Freeze
Warning area wide.

Dry, northwest flow is predominant throughout the week, with the
exception perhaps early Wed. morning in the form of isolated
showers over far eastern Kansas as another weak frontal boundary
passes southeast. Associated mid clouds should not inhibit highs
from reaching the 70s Wednesday, which persists into the weekend as
upper ridging builds east. Mid level winds back to the
west/southwest by early next week, signaling the return for a
more active weather pattern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Dry air with the surface ridge in is expected to keep VFR
conditions in place. A strengthening pressure gradient should
allow southerly winds Tuesday to become breezy.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters