908
FXUS63 KTOP 080008
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
708 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers or sprinkles possible tonight into Friday, better
rain chances (50-80%) Saturday night

- Near to above normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft continues across the area as we remain on the
southwest periphery of a large upper low centered over the Hudson
Bay. A smaller upper low is noted over northwestern Mexico with
ridging off the Pacific coast. Closer to home, breezy southwest
winds amid sunshine have allowed temperatures to warm closer to
seasonal values today in the 70s. Tonight into Friday, a weak
perturbation aloft ejects out of the Rockies and moves through the
area, bringing a weak sfc boundary along with it. CAMs have spotty
reflectivity mainly near the KS/NE border tonight and again in east
central KS Friday late morning and afternoon; however, forecast
soundings show abundant dry air below 700mb. Would not expect much
of this to reach the ground, if any, but will continue with small
PoPs to account for a stray shower or sprinkle. East central KS may
see slightly better moisture quality just ahead of the weak front
Friday, but Td depressions are still fairly high. Other than low
precip chances, little change in air mass is expected with this
front as temperatures still reach the 70s, similar to today.

Most of the daytime hours Saturday should remain dry and warm with
highs in the 80s before the next wave aloft moves in, followed by
the cold front Saturday night. Somewhat better moisture return
should take place, although based on soundings, it looks like the
sufficient moisture holds off until the evening hours at which point
instability starts to wane. This keeps severe weather potential low
with rainfall amounts looking light, but at least a few
thunderstorms would be plausible.

High pressure builds in Sunday, leaving clearing skies with highs
back to the 70s behind the front. The upper ridge to our west builds
early next week, resulting in a warming trend and bringing highs
into the 80s through at least the middle of the week. It`s worth
noting a system to our north brings a slight rain chance Monday
night into early Tuesday, but there has been some variation on the
track of the associated sfc low, so confidence remains low in how
much that system will ultimately impact us.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions continue with mainly mid to high clouds streaming
across the area into the day tomorrow. LLWS sets up during the
overnight period and lasts until around mid-morning when an upper
level wave pushes a surface front into and through the area. Winds
change to the NNW through the late morning into the afternoon but
generally remain around or just below 10kts much of the time. Could
have a few showers drift across the area from early morning into
midday but generally with a dry lower atmosphere in place any
precipitation that may develop would be light and brief. Therefore,
probability of precipitation remains too low to mention at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Drake