225
FXUS63 KTOP 221050
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into Saturday
morning as a cold front moves through.

- Autumn preview arrives behind the front, with highs in the 70s
  and lows in the 50s for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Upper ridging this morning remains centered over the Four Corners
region, with weak upper flow present over the northeast Kansas. At
the surface, seasonably strong high pressure is centered a bit to
our northeast. With weak flow in place, today should be a near
repeat of yesterday, potentially even a hair nicer given some very
subtle warm/dry air advection.

Bigger changes are on the way for the weekend as a deep upper low
moves across the Northern Plains and pushes a rather impressive cold
front southwards. This front will move across our area late tonight
into tomorrow morning, supporting some scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Can`t completely rule out some very isolated gusty
winds with the storms as they move out of Nebraska, but the early
morning timing and modest shear/instability make notable severe
weather unlikely. A few showers may linger into Saturday afternoon
south of I-70, before clearing as much cooler/drier air steadily
filters in. The upper low will continue to amplify over the eastern
US Sunday into Monday, keeping northwest flow in place aloft into
much of next week. Persistent high pressure over the Midwest will
keep cool and dry air locked in place across our region.

The main uncertainty will be a pair of weak southern-stream
shortwave troughs that trail the main upper low. The first of these
will be Monday into Tuesday, moving across southern Kansas and
Oklahoma. Given this track, rain chances and amounts will be highest
to our south, but some light rain may still occur in the southern
half of our forecast area. The second shortwave looks to arrive
sometime around Thursday. The range of potential solutions is higher
this far out, but some indications are for a slightly more amplified
trough that would bring rain chances farther north across our area.
The coverage of precipitation and low clouds will also have a role
on temperatures throughout the week. Clearer skies would result in
highs on the warm end of the forecast and lows on the cool end. On
the other hand, widespread rain and clouds would make for cooler
than forecast highs and warmer than forecast lows. Regardless,
temperatures and dewpoints will both be well below average for late
August!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Expecting VFR conditions with light southeast winds to
continue through most of the period. Could see some scattered
showers and storms early tomorrow morning as a front approaches, but
this looks to be around or just after the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese