622
FXUS63 KTOP 301933
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
233 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and muggy afternoon continues for areas south of I-70. A Heat
Advisory goes through 7 PM for Franklin, Anderson and Coffey
counties.

- Scattered strong to marginally severe storms will be possible
later this afternoon through this evening. Damaging winds of 60 mph
will be the main hazards.

- Temperatures Thursday into next week are expected to be much
  below average for this time of year with highs in the 70s and
  80s!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a few shortwaves
across northern Kansas and Missouri, a large upper ridge over the 4-
corners and southern Plains and a large jet streak extending from
the Great Lakes to Nova Scotia. Closer to Kansas, the western
shortwave in the region has helped to strengthen a surface low over
south-central Kansas as a diffuse cold front extends northeast
across the state. This boundary and cloud cover have led to a fairly
wide temperature gradient across the area with 70s and low 80s north
of I-70 and upper 80s and low 90s south. Areas across east-central
Kansas where sun has been plentiful this afternoon will likely again
see heat indices jump to near 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory continues
for Franklin, Anderson, and Coffey counties through 7 PM for the
dangerous heat.

Over the next few hours, MLCIN should continue to erode across
central and east-central Kansas as lift associated with the mid-
level shortwave and surface boundary co-locate enough to increase
chances for thunderstorms. Given the 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
deep shear associated with the wave increasing to 20-30 knots,
cannot rule out a strong to severe storm developing across central
and east-central Kansas later this afternoon and evening. Freezing
heights are still pretty high so hail does not look like much of a
threat outside some pea-sized hail. The main concern given the
inverted-V sounding appears to be damaging winds up to 60 mph.
Storms through the evening should track east with the frontal
boundary and upper wave. Heavy rain will also be another hazard to
keep an eye on as storms will likely be very efficient rain
producers. Storms will be possible of 1.75"-2.25"/hour which could
lead to localized flooding if multiple storms move over the same
area in quick succession.

Much cooler air moves in over the next several days as upper ridging
settles over the 4-corners region and a cool surface high builds in
from the northeast. Expect mostly dry conditions over the next few
days as highs top out in the 70s and low 80s. The next best chance
for widespread precipitation (20-45%) will come Saturday night into
Sunday morning as a perturbation embedded in northwest flow ejects
off the northern Rockies. There are still some discrepancies of
where the QPF swath will situate as some guidance still keeps
forcing and moisture west of us. By next week, expect below-normal
temperatures to persist with a slight warm-up by the mid-week as
upper ridging tries to slide a bit further east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Main aviation hazard today will be the chance for thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening at all terminals. Most will develop
across central Kansas and move east along and south of the I-70
corridor. With confidence highest for convection to stay just
south of terminals, opted to continue PROB30 for convection this
evening. MVFR stratus is expected to filter in behind the
frontal boundary by Thursday morning and expected to linger into
the early afternoon Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer