176
FXUS63 KTOP 172314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight and
  tomorrow morning.


- A prolonged heat wave is likely beginning this weekend and
  extending through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Precipitation has largely exited our area to the south as the
front has become less defined and mid/upper-level support has
exited the region. The combination of a developing low-level
jet and a warm front lifting northward across the area may
spark scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow
morning. With PWATs above two inches, heavy rainfall will once
again be possible in any thunderstorms, though flooding concerns
will be much less than last night due to less forcing and
faster forward movement of storms.

After the warm front exits to the north, warm, moist air settles
into the area. Highs Friday will once again climb into the 90s.
Unfortunately, this will be the coolest day of the next week. A
prolonged heat wave will grip the region this weekend through
next week. While we have been warm lately, this will be more
prolonged heat than we have seen in a while. Temperatures
around 100 degrees and heat indicies of 100-110 degrees will be
possible each day. Precipitation may be shunted off to our north
depending on the strength of the upper-level ridge that builds
into the central Plains. A few complexes of storms may ridge the
periphery of the ridge and could impact portions of the area
over the next week, but predictability and confidence in any
precipitation is quite low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Expect a gradual lowering of CIGs through this evening into the
overnight period. Could drop to IFR overnight coinciding with
highest chances to see a few showers and storms around the
terminals. By mid to late morning, should start to see CIGs lift
with possible marginal VFR conditions through much of the
afternoon before seeing clouds begin to scatter.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Drake