420
FXUS63 KTOP 092316
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot this afternoon with heat indices 104 to 108. Heat indices
around 100 to 105 expected again tomorrow.

- Storms should weaken as they move into north-central KS around
sunset, but may still briefly produce some damaging winds and small
hail.

- More severe storm potential Wednesday evening along a cold front,
and perhaps into Thursday afternoon across far east-central KS.

- Active pattern continues into early next week, with more chances
for rain and strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon is quite indicative of a busy
week of weather, with broad ridging across the eastern CONUS and
seasonably strong troughing over the western states. At the surface,
outflow from last night`s storms has washed out to our south,
allowing richer surface moisture to move back north. With strong 850
mb WAA ahead of a developing lee trough, plus mostly sunny skies,
temperatures are warming up quickly. Should see temperatures climb
into the 90s by mid afternoon. With dewpoints also climbing, still
expecting heat indices 104-108 at times, reaching solidly into Heat
Advisory criteria. Aside from the heat, still watching some severe
storm chances this evening, mainly towards north-central Kansas. As
lee troughing continues to strengthen we should see higher-based
convection develop across western Kansas, merging into a line of
storms that will approach north-central Kansas towards sunset. Given
shear decreasing with eastern extent and CIN increasing with time,
still expecting storms to weaken and gust out as they move into the
area. Depending on how quickly this occurs, there may be a brief
window (8-11 PM) for a few severe wind gusts across north-central
KS, as well as small hail. However by late evening expectations are
for the increasing CIN to win out, with any lingering storms
diminishing.

Heading into tomorrow, a lead shortwave will lift northeast across
the upper Midwest, pushing a cold front east towards our area.
Another hot and humid airmass will be in place ahead of the front,
with heat indices nearing 105 again. Confidence in Heat Advisory
criteria being reached is slightly too low for now though, with some
potential for some lingering mid-level clouds. By late afternoon and
evening, convergence along the front should be enough for some
scattered storms to develop. With plenty of instability, shear
around 30-35 kts should be sufficient for a mix of multicells and
supercells. Primary threats should be large hail and damaging winds
given veered low level winds, but a brief tornado can`t be ruled out
if a storm stays discrete into the evening as the LLJ increases. A
similar environment looks to be in place along the front again for
Thursday. Recent guidance has slightly sped up the front`s
progression, so the severe risk may stay a bit to our southeast, but
a slower front would see some lingering severe risk across far east-
central KS.

Over the weekend and into next week we`ll stay within a region of
seasonably strong zonal flow aloft, anchored to the south of a deep
upper low over southern Canada. As several shortwaves round the base
of this trough we`ll see additional fronts move across the area,
bringing more rain and storm chances. At this point Saturday offers
the best chance of severe storms, with good agreement in guidance of
an unstable and moderately sheared environment ahead of a front.
This system could push a cooler and drier airmass into the area for
early next week, though if the front lingers just to our south we
could remain in a more unsettled pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected. Some cumulus around FL040 may be
present at times with a modest inversion in place. Will continue
with some gust inclusion throughout this forecast with a moist
boundary layer and moderate low-level jet keeping some mixing in
place though gusts may not be consistent overnight. Still expect
thunderstorms early to stay west of the terminals but a front in the
area late brings some convective potential to TOP and FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Poage