912
FXUS63 KTOP 282320
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night.
  Locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out though severe weather
  potential is quite low, rising a bit Thursday night.

- Not as hot today through Friday. Cooler yet this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies  this afternoon with temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 80s, and only isolated showers noted on
radar, with most locations remaining dry through early evening.

CAMs continue to show a line  of showers and thunderstorms
developing late tonight into early Wednesday morning along the nose
of a developing low-level jet, generally along and south of a line
from Belleville to Manhattan, Topeka and Ottawa. Severe storms are
not favored with a decoupled boundary layer and lack of shear, but
occasional gusty winds are possible due to precip loading and
stronger downdrafts potentially pushing through the inversion.
Additionally, heavy rain is possible with PWATs in excess of 2.25
inches and potential training of thunderstorms. While flooding is not
widely expected with less focused lift and a more scattered storm
mode, training of storms could lead to some localized flooding.

Beyond tonight, guidance keeps  highs near seasonal normals in the
upper 80s to near 90 through the remainder of the work week with
periodic low-end showers and thunderstorm chances as weak
disturbances ride northwest flow aloft. A stronger cold front is
favored to swing through Thursday night into Friday. This is likely
our best chance at more widespread rain and stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Main aviation concern continues to be chances for showers and
storms to impact terminals early Thursday morning. Recent guidance
has trended later with convection, but overall confidence in
location and timing remains on the low side. Have maintained a
PROB30 group for now, although chances appear higher at KMHK
than KTOP/KFOE. Outside of any precipitation, VFR conditions
are expected.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Flanagan