048
FXUS63 KTOP 072318
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler tonight and tomorrow, followed by another warming trend
  through the weekend.

- Very low (10%) rain chances Thursday and Friday mornings, but
  otherwise dry through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The shortwave trough that brought yesterday`s cold front is moving
away to the northeast, allowing morning rain and clouds to clear
across our area. Behind the front, temperatures are still in the 60s
despite plenty of sun, with northerly winds advecting drier
dewpoints southward. Surface ridging will stay in place for the next
36 hours, keeping cool temperatures around. With clear and calm
conditions, lows tomorrow morning will fall into the low/mid 40s.
This may allow for some areas of fog to develop, most likely in the
usual low-lying areas of northeast Kansas. High temperatures warm a
bit tomorrow, but still stay slightly below average.

We`ll warm back up Thursday into the weekend as upper ridging again
takes hold across the middle part of the country. A rather amplified
pattern with upper lows over both coasts will prevent the ridge axis
from moving too much until later in the weekend. So we`ll see a
return to temperatures in the 80s Friday through Sunday, with
overnight lows also 5-10 degrees above average. Can`t completely
rule out a few showers Thursday morning and again Friday morning
with a pair of weak mid-level perturbations. However moisture and
forcing for ascent will be limited, keeping any rain chances around
or below 15 percent. By early next week, we may begin to see some
slightly better rain chances as the ridge axis shifts to our east
and mid-level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of the next trough.
However there is still a lot of uncertainty with the overall
evolution of individual shortwaves by this point, keeping confidence
low on the details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions dominate, outside of some shallow fog near
sunrise Wednesday morning. KTOP and KMHK are most likely to be
impacted, but uncertainty remains in how widespread and dense
fog will be. Any fog dissipates by 13z or so.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan