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FXUS63 KTOP 071931
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
231 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler tonight and tomorrow, followed by another warming trend
through the weekend.

- Very low (10%) rain chances Thursday and Friday mornings, but
  otherwise dry through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The shortwave trough that brought yesterday`s cold front is moving
away to the northeast, allowing morning rain and clouds to clear
across our area. Behind the front, temperatures are still in the 60s
despite plenty of sun, with northerly winds advecting drier
dewpoints southward. Surface ridging will stay in place for the next
36 hours, keeping cool temperatures around. With clear and calm
conditions, lows tomorrow morning will fall into the low/mid 40s.
This may allow for some areas of fog to develop, most likely in the
usual low-lying areas of northeast Kansas. High temperatures warm a
bit tomorrow, but still stay slightly below average.

We`ll warm back up Thursday into the weekend as upper ridging again
takes hold across the middle part of the country. A rather amplified
pattern with upper lows over both coasts will prevent the ridge axis
from moving too much until later in the weekend. So we`ll see a
return to temperatures in the 80s Friday through Sunday, with
overnight lows also 5-10 degrees above average. Can`t completely
rule out a few showers Thursday morning and again Friday morning
with a pair of weak mid-level perturbations. However moisture and
forcing for ascent will be limited, keeping any rain chances around
or below 15 percent. By early next week, we may begin to see some
slightly better rain chances as the ridge axis shifts to our east
and mid-level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of the next trough.
However there is still a lot of uncertainty with the overall
evolution of individual shortwaves by this point, keeping confidence
low on the details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

With drier air moving in, the last of the MVFR ceilings
are exiting to the southeast of KFOE. Skies will continue to clear
through the rest of the afternoon, with north winds around 10
kts. With the clear skies and winds calming overnight, there
will likely be some fog towards sunrise. It remains to be seen
how widespread and dense it will be, but confident in at least
some fog towards KTOP and KMHK in the river valley.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese