135
FXUS63 KTOP 121855
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
155 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and non-severe storms develop south of I-70
  this afternoon and evening. Low end precip chances linger into
  Sunday afternoon (mainly south of I-35).

- Near seasonal temps this weekend translate to low 90s for
  highs Tuesday onward. Heat indices peak around 100 to 105
  degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Slow moving upper trough migrating through the southern plains this
afternoon, triggering several clusters of storms from Texas into
Oklahoma. Showers and storms as far north as central Kansas near a
secondary meandering front may impact portions of east central
Kansas (south of I-70) this afternoon and evening. Effective shear
is less than 20 kts while CAPE values average near 2000 J/KG.
Updrafts should overall not be severe with the exception of
lightning and brief, heavy rainfall.

This pattern persists until the upper trough exits on Sunday
afternoon with low chance pops kept in for areas near and south of
the I-35 corridor. Quasi zonal flow returns next week, featuring no
prominent waves impacting the region until perhaps the Thursday-
Friday period. Given the setup with environment largely uncapped
Monday-Wednesday, cannot rule an isolated storm or two in the late
afternoon Tuesday. The heat becomes more oppressive Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons as heat indices range from 100 to 105 degrees.

Cluster ensemble analysis exhibits disparities on
the 500 mb heights for the northern stream trough pushing a cold
front through the central plains Thursday-Friday. When it does
occur, it may be the best chance for widespread rainfall in the
forecast.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Based on upstream obs and satellite imagery, low end VFR stratus
is progged to become scattered this afternoon while mid-high
clouds continue to build east throughout the evening. SHRA
probability remains low tonight at terminals as the system
passes over Oklahoma. Light winds and mid clouds are expected to
linger through tomorrow morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto