682
FXUS63 KTOP 262307
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
607 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very muggy conditions build back in Sunday and Monday
  prompting a Heat Advisory for all of northeast Kansas. Expect
  Heat Index Values ranging from 105-110 degrees.

- Dry conditions persist until mid next week as a cold front
  moves across the area Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an exiting
shortwave across the upper Midwest, monsoonal flow over the Desert
Southwest and a deepening ridge over the southeastern US.
Southwesterly low level flow across northeastern Kansas today should
prompt a warmup this afternoon with the low to mid 90s returning. As
dewpoints remain in the low to mid 70s, expect heat indicies to
approach heat advisory criteria this afternoon, topping out in the
low 100 degree range. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm in
far east-central Kansas this afternoon, but better forcing remains
further east into western Missouri.

Attention turns to the dangerous heat by Sunday and Monday as heat
index values will build into the 105-110 degree range. This will all
take shape as the southeastern upper ridge begins to build west into
the southern Plains. This will help push afternoon temperatures into
the mid to upper 90s area-wide Sunday and Monday. These temperatures
paired with dewpoints hanging out in the mid 70s will create
dangerous conditions, especially for those that are sensitive to the
heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday afternoon and goes
through early Monday evening. Make sure to take frequent breaks and
stay hydrated if outdoors. By Tuesday, some drier air tries to work
itself into central Kansas that could help to alleviate the heat a
bit, but may need to extend the Heat Advisory for portions of the
area if confidence becomes high for dangerous heat to continue.

By Wednesday, shortwave energy moving across the central Rockies
will help to deepen a surface trough across the Plains and slowly
push a surface boundary through Kansas. This will bring our next
chance for widespread precipitation to the area through Friday as
this boundary stalls around the area. As the boundary will not make
it through all areas by Wednesday afternoon, some areas along and
south of I-70 could still experience hot and muggy conditions with
afternoon temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s. Thursday and
Friday will see cooler temperatures with all of northeast KS seeing
highs top out in the 80s, possibly even the 70s!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Elevated winds just off the surface are
expected to preclude any fog development overnight. SSW winds
increase to near 10kts Sunday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Flanagan