939
FXUS63 KTOP 041732
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mostly dry Fourth, scattered showers and thunderstorms move in
by later in the evening, mainly across north-central KS (30-60%).

- Thunderstorm chances increase through the day Saturday (40-60%) as
a frontal boundary slides across the area. Thunderstorms possible
again Saturday evening into Sunday AM (20-40%).

- Scattered chances for precipitation persist into early next
  week as a common summer pattern remains in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge axis
settled over eastern Kansas with a trough moving into the PNW and
broad waves of energy across the Southern Plains and Northern
Plains. The ridge of high pressure has kept skies clear as surface
flow remains light out of the south. Through the day today, expect
cloud cover to increase as mid-level energy builds across the high
Plains. Cloud cover should help to keep temperatures from reaching
any higher than the low 90s this afternoon. Cannot rule out some
isolated showers/thunderstorm during peak heating hours today if
some congested cu can become deep enough, but overall forcing and
weak ML lapse rates do not suggest a high chance of widespread
showers/thunderstorms.

Later this evening, a more organized cluster of showers/storms will
move out of western Kansas, co-located with a compact mid-level
wave. This line of showers/storms should hold off until later in the
evening, so not thinking it will impact Independence day
celebrations much. Instability and shear will be fairly weak,
especially as you go east, so not expected any severe weather. That
said, with PWATs in the 2-2.25" range, some showers/thunderstorms
may be capable of some efficient rainfall rates.

Precipitation should progress across the area Saturday morning as
the mid-level wave pushes east with PoPs ending west to east by the
late morning hours. By the afternoon, instability will increase,
especially across central KS where values may exceed 3000 J/kg. Mid-
level lift should increase a bit as more lobes of energy eject off
the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. This will increase
the chances for storms again Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Shear should again be weak, so storm organization overall should be
lacking keeping storm severity at a minimum. Still cannot rule out
a strong to severe storm late Saturday given the instability with
the main threat being gusty winds and hail. An unsettled pattern
persists into next week with low-end chances for storms each day.
Confidence in overall coverage and timing is low at this time, but
this seems to be the case in summer set-ups such as the pattern we
are in. Luckily with the precipitation chances, temperatures are
expected to remain seasonal, topping out in the upper 80s and low
90s as lows bottom out int eh 60s and low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions are forecast with diurnal cu around 3-4 kft
through the afternoon. Will need to monitor for a few pop-up
showers or storms, more so towards MHK as they are closer to
the moisture axis in central KS. Any storms that could develop
this afternoon or early evening are too isolated to mention even
in a PROB30 group. Better chances come overnight as a broken
line or cluster of storms approaches from western/central KS.
They should weaken with time as they move east, and models have
varied on arrival time, so have utilized a PROB30 group to
account for that variability. A few models are suggesting some
brief MVFR cigs following rain in the morning, but would like to
see more consistency among guidance before inserting in TAFs.
Otherwise, breezy south winds should diminish after sunset this
evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Picha