017
FXUS63 KTOP 221702
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1202 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cooler today with low chances for light rain in far northern KS.

-Precipitation chances increase tonight with another round expected
Thursday night. Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.

-The heat and humidity build back in this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

This morning, surface high pressure continues to expand southward
over the area, bringing in a cooler and drier air mass, while the
upper level ridge of high pressure has been shunted slightly westward
over the High Plains. A shortwave is evident on water vapor imagery
over western Nebraska where storms have formed. CAMs take that batch
of rain eastward today, with a few models developing a showers
southward over northern KS. Forecast soundings show a fairly dry
column below H7 and weak lift, so chances for precipitation will
remain low today. More noteworthy is the cooler temperatures expected
today. After about a week of highs near or in the 90s, highs will be
back in the 80s area-wide this afternoon, with dew points in the 50s.
This is a welcome relief from previous sweltering heat and humidity.

Higher POPs return to the forecast tonight. Showers and storms look
to develop in central KS within a zone of isentropic ascent ahead of
the next mid-level shortwave trough, then track east across the area
into the early morning hours of Thursday. Forecast soundings shows
better moisture availability, but limited instability and overall
weak shear. Thus, the main risk looks to be isolated areas of heavy
rainfall as the rain moves east. A wet and cloudy day will keep
temperatures even cooler, with some locations possibly staying the
70s.

Another round of rainfall looks likely Thursday night and early
Friday as a more notable shortwave rides through the northwest flow
aloft. Soundings show a very moist profile with tropical atmospheric
moisture from TS Bertha possibly making it this far north. Pwats
over 2.0 inches rival daily max values from sounding climatology, and
with weak flow aloft, several hours of moderate rainfall could occur
for portions of the CWA. The axis for heaviest rainfall is currently
focused along and north of I-70 with the current QPF ranging from 1.0
to 1.5 inches. However, combined with tonight`s round of rain, some
locations could pick up over 2.0 inches total, which may lead to
some isolated flooding of area creeks and streams.

Our brief period of wet weather ends this weekend when the upper
ridge expands over the region. Combined with stronger southerly low
level flow, this sets the stage for more high heat and humidity.
Heat index values look to exceed triple digits again by Saturday
afternoon, continuing into early next week. Heat headlines may again
be needed for this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR TAFs will be expected through the remainder of the day today
before some rain showers move in early Thursday morning. Heavier
showers look to stay further west towards KMHK with lighter periods
of rain over KTOP and KFOE. Cannot rule out some thunder near KMHK,
but opted to keep precipitation mention as rain at this time since
confidence in widespread thunderstorms is low. Precipitation chances
will likely continue through the end of the TAF before a break in
rain builds in by the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Griesemer