109
FXUS63 KTOP 192312
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
612 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible into early this evening
  mainly over north-central into east-central areas. Could
  still see some stronger wind gusts to 60-70 with the most
  intense updrafts as they collapse over any given area.

- Storms this afternoon into early evening will also bring brief
  heavy rain to those who see a storm. Could see short-term
  street flooding.

- Drying trend in place Wednesday through the balance of the
  week with slightly cooler temperatures.

- A more meaningful front pushes into the the area late Friday
  bringing cooler temperatures into the weekend and early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Organized Westerly flow remain north of the area mainly along the
US/Canadian border. A ridge remains in place over the western CONUS.
Mesocale features rule the day across the forecast area. A weak MCV
continues to influence the weather over central Kansas areas in
concert with remnant outflow boundaries from overnight convection. A
weak synoptic boundary mostly stationary and appears to be stretched
across the Hwy 36 corridor. Storms this afternoon formed around
midday along the primary outflow across north-central KS. A couple
microburst caused brief winds of around 60-70mph based on damage
reports mostly from tree damage. Heavy rain also caused quick
responses leading to street flooding across the Junction City area.
Another cluster of storms continues to form generally over Ottawa
county and is slow to move with lack of steering flow and a low
shear environment in place. The typical hot August inverted-V
sounding is in place and steep mid-level lapse rates will allow for
a few strong updrafts to potentially re-form across north-central
into east-central areas through early this evening. Can`t rule out
another microburst or two should updrafts become tall and persist
long enough to collapse and cause more damaging wind across any
given area. This threat appears to greatly diminish into sunset this
evening.

Forecast consistency remains with a more meaningful cold front
entering the area late Friday. Ensemble data favoring a cooler
airmass entering the region by the weekend into early next week.
Morning showers and storms may be possible as the lower level the
cooler surface ridge pushes into the area generally focused over
north-central into central Kansas areas. Look for high temperatures
to cool into the 70s by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Showers and storms should remain out of the area for the
remainder of the evening as winds behind an outflow boundary
should keep winds from the southwest this evening. A weak wind
shift should occur overnight, persisting through the TAF as VFR
cu lingers into the morning and later portions of the TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Griesemer