635
FXUS63 KTOP 092301
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
601 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impact the area
  this afternoon into Sunday morning. Gusty winds are possible
  with these showers/storms.

- Conditions become dry through the morning Sunday with highs
  near-normal.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected Monday through the end
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A mid-level shortwave is moving southeast across Rockies this
afternoon with a surface low centered along the KS/CO state line and
a cold front advancing south across southern Nebraska. Lift ahead of
the main shortwave has generated scattered elevated showers that
have been spreading west to east across the area; this trend will
continue through the afternoon. Instability is weak (< 500 J/kg)
which will limit the severe potential, but steep low-level lapse
rates and inverted-V soundings will support gusty winds (30-40 MPH)
with showers or storms.

Rain and isolated storms continue overnight into Sunday morning as
the aforementioned Rockies shortwave ejects across the Central
Plains. CAMs vary in coverage and location of precipitation
overnight; best chances for showers and storms are across central
and southern Kansas. Meager instability will support mainly rain
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder, although the environment
could still support some gusty winds under any showers/storms.
Conditions dry out through the morning with clearing skies for
Sunday afternoon. A cooler post-frontal airmass will keep
temperatures closer to climatological norms with highs near 70
degrees.

Temperatures warm Monday and Tuesday as a mid-level ridge pushes
east towards the Plains. A closed low is progged to dive southeast
towards the Great Lakes on Tuesday, which will push a cold front
through the area. Better moisture and ascent will be northeast of
the area, but ensembles have shown an increasing signal for some
rain/storms across east-central Kansas with this feature.
Predictability decreases Thursday through the end of next week. Mid-
level ridging is progged to build over the Southern and Central
Plains Thursday, supporting above-normal temperatures. Highs Friday
and Saturday are looking likely to eclipse the 90 degree mark for
most locales. Several passing waves lead to at least low chances for
showers and storms Thursday into the weekend, but variability in
guidance leads to low confidence in details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR through the forecast period as increasing low and mid clouds are
accompanied by a fropa. The fropa is progged to veer winds to the
northeast in the 02-04Z time frame. Northeast winds may occasionally
gust above 30 kts at this time as multiple solutions depict scattered
showers developing over terminals. The probability for thunder has
lowered so decided to remove the PROB30 mention. Clouds clear out of
sites by 20Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...22