515
FXUS63 KTOP 241941
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
241 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered thunderstorms, primarily south of I-70, are expected to
 redevelop this evening and tonight.

-Periodic rain chances remain in the forecast through early
 Tuesday. Overall severe and flooding threat appear low through
 this timeframe.

-Temperatures stay much cooler than average for Sunday, and
 especially Memorial Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The pattern across the CONUS this afternoon features a mid-
level closed low pressure system over southern NV and CA, and
low amplitude broad ridging over the central and southern
Plains. Subtle shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft are
difficult to pick out this afternoon, but there is an area of
showers and storms over NE and some enhanced areas of water
vapor over NM. At the surface, low pressure was over western TX
with a stationary front near the Red River Valley. After dry
weather today, POPs will again increase this evening and tonight
as lift associated with some mid-level WAA increases over an
850mb boundary still in place. The southern areas remain
favored for the highest chances and rainfall totals. South of
I-70, MUCAPE could approach 500 J/kg and effective shear could
be near 40 kts. This may lead to a few storms producing hail or
gusty winds tonight.

Tomorrow (Sunday), the southwestern mid-level low and associated
trough axis will progress eastward over the Four Corners region.
There could be another lull in precipitation for much of the day --
although have held onto some POPs for the possibility of widely
scattered showers/convection -- until a possible lead wave generates
enhanced lift over eastern KS late in the day. Nighttime rain is
again favored with areas south of I-70 forecast to have the higher
QPF.

As the main upper wave approaches on Monday, more widespread
rainfall should develop, allowing more of our northern locations to
see precipitation. Timing of this batch of rain is a little
more uncertain with some notable model differences, but current
thinking is for those chances to be highest late Monday into
Monday night as the surface low ejects out of TX and toward the
Ozarks. If cloud cover sticks around tomorrow and Monday, highs
will be quite a bit cooler than average, only in the mid 60s,
possibly even the upper 50s in far northern KS on Memorial Day.

The periodic rain chances we have been dealing with this weekend
should end for a brief period on Tuesday into midweek as the
main upper trough axis passes east of the area and high pressure
builds in. Long range models, however, show a closed upper low
deepening north of the area with various trough axises rotating
around it later in the workweek. That could allow for more
rainfall by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Timing of thunderstorms and MVFR/IFR CIGS are the main
challenges this TAF period. Have included a PROB30 group at all
airports for late this evening when chances are most likely.
Highest overall chances for TS are south of terminals tonight,
but a stray shower or storm could occur. Will have to monitor
radar trends. Lower category ceilings are then expected tonight
and Sunday morning, but timing of onset may need to be adjusted.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey