921
FXUS63 KTOP 242325
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
525 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Front moves through today bringing chilly air in for the remainder
of the week.

- System moves in by Wednesday and Thursday, bringing chances (<20%)
for a rain/snow mix. Confidence has begin to decrease in areas
seeing any hazardous travel conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday.

- Winter-like air filters in by late next weekend with highs
  near freezing and lows in the teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Our last warm day for the next week or so is ongoing this afternoon
as a surface trough and diffuse surface cold front continues to
sweep across eastern Kansas. A fairly steep temperature gradient is
noted behind extending back into central Nebraska where areas have
struggled to reach the 40s. As this surface trough and boundary
slide through the area this afternoon and evening, CAA will
strengthen, ushering in a chilly air mass for the next week. This
will lead to afternoon highs in the 40s through Wednesday and upper
30s and low 40s by Thursday through Saturday.

The main topic of discussion for the next week will be the upper
level system moving into the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing
some chances for mainly rain with some snow possibly mixing in. A
progressive, positively-tilted open wave moves into the central
Plains during this time range helping increase lift needed for
precipitation chances. Lee cyclogenesis will begin to deepen a
surface low over the panhandles of Texas during the day Wednesday,
tracking east along and near the Red River. With weak CAA to the
north of the surface low and the weak nature of the wave, focused
areas of lift across eastern Kansas will be split between two
vorticity maxima; one approaching the Great Lakes region and the
other near the 4-corners regions. This has diminished confidence in
widespread precipitation chances for Wednesday and Thursday with QPF
trending south and north of the area, split between the two waves.
With slower advection of cold air during the day on Wednesday, any
precipitation that does fall will likely fall as a cold rain with
temperatures in the low 40s. By the time near-freezing surface temps
filter into the area, majority of the upper-level support and
precipitation will have shifted east and south of the area. All that
said, do not expect too many winter weather travel concerns across
eastern Kansas for the upcoming Holiday weekend.

Cold air remains overhead Thursday and into the weekend as a stout
surface high sits over the region. By Saturday, another wave coming
in from the PNW digs into the central Plains bringing another shot
of cold air for Sunday/Monday and possibly some precipitation
chances. High temps by Monday will be the coldest of the season so
far, topping out in the low 30s with lows dipping into the low
teens! There is still some discrepancies in timing between long
range guidance for next weekend`s system, so stay tuned for further
details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A cold front has moved through KTOP and KFOE within the past hour.
This evening behind the front, northwest winds will strengthen to 10-
15 kts with higher gusts, and MVFR stratus will fill in across the
area. This stratus should clear by mid-morning, but the breezy
northwest winds will persist throughout the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Reese