787
FXUS63 KTOP 070524
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers increasing in coverage tonight into Wednesday then
  diminishing Thursday into Thursday night. Some thunderstorm
  activity Wednesday into Thursday evening but no severe weather
  is expected.

- Dry and warming conditions Friday into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Weakening precipition beginning to push north into eastern Kansas
this afternoon as the main upper low pushes east across New Mexico.
Easterly low-level flow will keep dry air in place and likely will
hold off more widespread precipitation this far north until
Wednesday. Have reduced PoPs somewhat until this time. Precipitable
water values rise to around an inch but mid-level lapse rates remain
below 7 C/km for a limited thunder chance Wednesday. The upper low
continues to fill as it moves over southern Kansas with drier air
moving in aloft Thursday. Could be enough clearing for CAPE to reach
around 500 J/kg Thursday afternoon and early evening which could
bring the most thunderstorm activity. Heaviest overall precip
amounts remain over southern areas with amounts over an inch likely
being the exception.

The upper low gets shunted south-southeast over the weekend with
ridging building from the Rockies into the northern Plains. There is
a very small chance it could return north into eastern Missouri
early next week which could bring small PoPs to far eastern Kansas.
Otherwise little in the way of forcing and southerly low-level flow
should keep things dry with steadily-warming conditons.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period with some showers near
terminals overnight. Conditions begin to deteriorate by late
morning into the afternoon as additional rain approaches.
Uncertainty exists in how soon and for how long MVFR cigs and
rain will impact terminals. Have delayed onset by a few hours
with rain becoming more scattered by Wed evening as cigs return
to VFR. There could be a few lightning strikes near terminals
this afternoon, but chances are too low to include in TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Flanagan