947
FXUS63 KTOP 102326
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms build back this afternoon and continue through Monday
  morning. Rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour could lead to
  flooding, especially along and south of Interstate 70 where
  the Flood Watch remains in effect.

- A few storms this afternoon into early Monday could be strong to
  severe. Damaging wind gusts would be the main hazard.

- Chances (20-40%) for showers and storms continue Monday and
  Tuesday before warmer and drier conditions are favored
  Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Mid-level flow has become southwesterly this afternoon across
the Central Plains ahead of a shortwave trough over the Rockies.
Skies have been slowly clearing from west to east through the
day and temperatures are warming slower than expected, but still
will reach into the 80s. The surface front currently resides
just south of the Interstate 35 corridor with the 850mb boundary
along Interstate 70. These boundaries are expected to slide
farther south through the rest of the day before stalling across
southern and east central Kansas this evening. Storms are
expected to develop along the surface boundary this afternoon
into the evening from southern Kansas into east central Kansas,
aided by several passing waves in the broad southwesterly flow.
Initial storms could be strong to severe given MLCAPE of
3000-3500 J/kg and effective shear 20-25kts. Damaging wind gusts
and locally heavy rainfall would be the main hazards, but some
small hail is also possible. Coverage of storms increases and
lifts north through the evening and overnight as the low-level
jet strengthens. PWATs of around 2 inches will support rainfall
rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour and could lead to flooding,
especially if the boundary doesn`t lift back north and storms
are able to train along a west-east axis. A few storms could be
strong to severe overnight as well and produce damaging wind
gusts, mainly if a cluster or line segment of storms is able to
organize. CAMs have been consistent in the heaviest rainfall
impacting areas south of Interstate 70, but still vary in
exactly how far north precipitation will progress. Even so,
confidence in heavy rainfall leading to flooding is highest
along and south of Interstate 70, so the flood watch for areas
north of the interstate has been cancelled. These area could
still see locally heavy rainfall, but the threat for flooding is
focused to the south.

Shortwave energy becomes cutoff from the main flow Monday into
Tuesday. Guidance suggests an MCV from convection will linger
through the daytime hours on Monday, leading to scattered showers
and storms for much of the day. With precipitation and cloud cover
hanging on through the day, diurnal heating will be limited and
temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Precipitation
chances continue into Tuesday before the shortwave sags far enough
south to allow for the mid-level ridge to build towards the local
area. This favors warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday through the end of the week.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions expected until showers and storms build back
north towards terminals overnight. Uncertainty remains in the
northern extent of this precipitation and storms may stay just
south of terminals. Have included a PROB30 group for now. MVFR
cigs and MVFR/IFR VSBY are likely within storms if they reach
TAF sites before precipitation ends around 13z Monday. Some
guidance suggest MVFR cigs stick around through the morning
hours Monday, but confidence in this is too low for inclusion.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Convection-dominated TAFs over the next 24 hours as storms and
rain move into the terminals late this evening and overnight
into Monday. Maintained a PROB30 group for scattered storms
overnight as better confidence keeps them south of the
terminals. Went with a prevailing VCTS/RA group tomorrow morning
as this seemed like the best time-frame for widespread
precipitation to impact the terminals. There should be a brief
break in rain/storms late Monday morning before storm chances
return by the end of the TAF. Included a PROB30 for convection
for the late TAF period.

Outside of convection, much of the CIGs through the TAF will
bounce between MVFR and VFR, dropping with rain and storms.
Winds will mainly stay out of the southeast, but remain fairly
light and variable at times.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-
KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Griesemer