460
FXUS63 KTOP 201113
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain continues into this evening. Additional rainfall
amounts of around 0.5 to 1.5 inches across east-central KS.

- If some brief clearing can occur, a few stronger storms possible
across east-central KS this afternoon.

- Turning milder again for the remainder of the period, with
  occasional showers/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The upper low over New Mexico is beginning to accelerate
northeastward this morning, leading to an extensive area over the
Southern Plains. As the low continues to lift northeast, widespread
areas of moderate rain will move across the area. High confidence
that the heaviest rain will be across east-central KS, closest to
the track of the surface low. Amounts here should be generally in
the 0.5 to 1.5" range, with lower amounts towards north-central KS.
There also remains a conditional threat for a brief strong/severe
storm across east-central KS. This would hinge on a window of
clearing skies near the surface low, allowing some weak instability
to develop. Some short-term guidance keeps the surface low east of
the area altogether, with the discrepancy in the track likely
tied to questions with upstream convection. So confidence is
quite low in surface-based storms this afternoon, but if a
couple low topped supercells did develop there would be a
marginal hail/weak tornado risk. By the evening hours, rain and
storms will quickly end as the low crosses overhead and
heights/pressures begin to rise.

Brief surface ridging builds in tonight and into Monday. Light winds
and clearing skies may allow for some brief frost over north-central
KS, where temperatures should drop into the mid 30s. Southerly winds
return by Monday afternoon, as a period of broad but modest
southwest flow aloft sets up. This will bring mild temperatures back
for the remainder of the week. Within the southwest flow aloft,
several weak perturbations will move across the region, each
bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. The first of
these on Tuesday appears the most notable, pushing a decaying cold
front south over the area. Height falls by Tuesday evening look
negligible, but most guidance still depicts a few storms
developing along the weakening boundary. Guidance depicts 30-35
kts of shear and around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, along with very
steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km. So if any storms can
develop, would have to watch for a brief strong/severe storm
threat. The rest of the week will continue to see shower and
storm chances, but with very low predictability in time and
space, given weak flow aloft and the more distant time range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Light to moderate rain showers will continue this into the
evening, though there will likely be some sort of lull mid to late
morning. A few afternoon thunderstorms are possible towards Topeka
as well. Ceilings stay mainly IFR until rain and storms clear out
this evening. Winds around 10 kts gradually turn from northeast to
north to northwest throughout the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese