802
FXUS63 KTOP 051128 AAA
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
628 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One round of thunderstorms this morning and another this
  evening.

- Locally heavy rains likely this morning with marginal risk for
  severe storms this evening for damaging winds.

- Sunday should be drier with low chances for more storms
  through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A diffuse, slow moving cold front extended south across central
Kansas this morning. A shortwave trough was also located across
the region which along with a 30-40kt 850mb LLJ was aiding in
persistent convection within an atmosphere characterized by
500-1000J/KG of CAPE but modest shear of less than 20kts. PWATs
were likely near record values at or just above 2" and freezing
levels were at or above 15kft so storms will likely produce
heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr this morning.

Expect the greatest coverage of storms/precip to occur north of
I-70 this morning but any severe weather risk appears very low
this morning given poor lapse rates and weak shear. As the mid
level wave moves to the northeast of Kansas, the 850mb jet
should also weaken and translate away from the area later this
morning. This should cause the precip coverage to wane by
late morning or early afternoon. Meanwhile, the slow moving
cold front will sag southward and should be the focus for
renewed scattered storms this evening. MLCAPE of 2000j/kg or
higher and some mid level drying behind the wave may aid in
increasing the risk for damaging winds in any of the stronger
storms this evening. The coverage and duration of any storms
remains in question however as the wave is departing and heights
are beginning to rise tonight so we expect any severe risk to
diminish by midnight.

The front will sag into southeast Kansas on Sunday with some
lingering low chances for storms in that area. Otherwise, most
areas should be dry with weak high pressure in place.

Sunday night into Monday...another complex of storms may develop
across Nebraska late Sunday and move southward. 850mb winds are
weak across the area and do not favor sustaining any MCS this
far east so would expect that batch of storms to remain west of
the CWA or weaken as it moves southeast.

The remainder of the week will feature continued weak
disturbances moving just north of Kansas in a somewhat zonal to
northwest flow regime. That suggests at least daily/nightly
chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Area of rain and embedded thunderstorms will impact the TAF
sites this morning. It appears that MVFR CIGS will occur at
least at times this morning with periods of MVFR VIS conds in
rain/thunder at least for a couple of hours this morning as
well. The latest thinking is that the CIGS should improve back
to VFR by midday into this afternoon before more scattered
thunderstorms develop after 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt