


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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546 FXUS63 KTOP 210727 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 227 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm weather continues today and Friday with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. - There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms Friday night as a cold front moves south. - Cooler weather with a taste of fall is expected across the region into next week with off an on chances for rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 An upper level ridge remained centered over the Four Corners region per the 07Z water vapor imagery, with a ridge axis extending into the Upper Midwest. This placed the forecast area under weak northerly flow. Surface obs show high pressure over WI and the UP of MI that was nosing into northeast KS. The weather for today should be influenced by the ridging at the surface and aloft, with weak subsidence in mid levels and continued easterly flow at the surface. Models show again there may be some modest surface based instability with weak inhibition. But with no forcing or lift, chances that a give location sees a pop-up shower are 5 to 10 percent. The easterly low level winds look to keep highs around 90 as dewpoint temps mix out a little more this afternoon keeping heat indices much more bearable. Clear skies with light winds should continue tonight as lows fall into the lower and middle 60s. We should see a little more southerly winds and weak warm air advection on Friday pushing highs a degree or two warmer ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the area Friday night. In general there doesn`t appear to be a lot of time for moisture return ahead of the front and this limits instability ahead of the boundary Friday evening. This may be why models are holding off precip until later in the night when better shortwave dynamics catch up with the front. Models forecast bulk shear to decreasing the further south into KS storms get, but mid level lapse rates could still be steep enough for a strong storm or two. So while the setup doesn`t look like a classic severe weather event, we`ll need to keep an eye on thinks Friday night. Not a lot of change to the forecast for Saturday through early next week. There is still good agreement in the pattern change with northwest flow allowing a Canadian high pressure to move south into the central plains. This will bring unseasonable cool weather to the area. Ensembles have narrowed the spread in potential highs for Monday and Tuesday, but there remains some 7 to 9 degree spread in highs with the NBM leaning closer to the 25 percentile. If there are widespread clouds and precip, highs in the lower 70s may make some sense. The blend has trended lower with POPs Monday and Tuesday, which based on the operational solutions, seems like a good trend. So there remains some room for the forecast highs to change in the coming days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period aside from a brief period of ground fog at TOP around sunrise this morning. A CU field is expected this afternoon and a pop-up shower may develop, but chances are only 5 to 10 percent. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters