827
FXUS63 KTOP 150528
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1228 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue into next week with highs in
the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

- Storm chances return early Sunday morning through Tuesday,
  which could include severe weather particularly on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Sfc low pressure has been deepening in the High Plains today with
easterly winds advecting low-level moisture into the area, which has
resulted in very warm and humid conditions this afternoon. Cold
front is well upstream in western NE/KS. The upper trough associated
with the sfc low is advancing across the Rockies, and is expected to
trigger convection along the front in Nebraska and the Dakotas. Some
of the coarser-resolution models are still trying to suggest storms
may develop as far south as the KS border, and the last couple runs
of the HRRR are finally starting to indicate a few cells may develop
along the border before going northeast into NE/MO. This appears to
be associated with isentropic ascent on the 310K surface. Have a dry
forecast for now as the vast majority of guidance looked dry until
fairly recently, so will monitor trends, but even if any precip
occurs in northern KS it should remain brief.

The cold front itself passes through dry overnight into early
Thursday morning. A drier air mass will be left in its wake, so even
with only a small drop in afternoon temperatures (highs still in the
80s), it should feel much more comfortable with dew points in the
40s. Any rain chances Friday and Saturday should stay south of the
area with the lingering frontal boundary to the south and quasi-
zonal flow aloft.

Heading into the weekend, the next upper trough digs across the
western US. Saturday looks quiet and dry with isentropic lift
looking to drive chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly after midnight into Sunday morning. Any of this activity
looks to be elevated and likely hit or miss through most of the day.
From here, two shortwaves eject out of the trough, the first
bringing storm chances Sunday night into Monday and the other
bringing another round on Monday. Several mesoscale details still
need to come together and should help to create a clearer picture as
we get closer, but instability and shear parameters would support
severe weather in the region. Monday in particular is a day to
watch, though the location of greatest risk will depend on where the
dryline sets up. It`s also worth noting there is a 10-15 degree
spread on temperatures Monday, which probably is due to potential
impacts from cloud cover and would have implications on how much
instability there will be. Storm chances linger into Tuesday mainly
due to timing differences between model solutions. If the system
ends up further west on Monday, then Tuesday could be more of a
severe weather concern for our area before the low moves out to the
northeast.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR prevails with diurnal cu around 4kft this afternoon,
expected to dissipate leading up to sunset. SE winds around 12
kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts should also diminish with
sunset. A weak cold front passes through the area overnight into
early morning, shifting winds to the WSW and eventually west
with gusts picking up late in the period. There may be a 2-3
hour window overnight prior to fropa when some LLWS could
develop, but confidence was not high enough to introduce a
mention in the TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

With a 40 kt LLJ and light southeasterly winds, we are
currently near LLWS criteria, however this will be short-lived as a
cold front approaches from the west and shunts the LLJ off to the
east. Winds turn westerly behind the front and increase to around 10-
15 kts, with higher gusts continuing throughout the day. Some brief
and minor visibility reductions are also possible right behind the
front due to blowing dust, most likely around and west of KMHK.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Reese