234
FXUS21 KWNC 021732
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 02 2026

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure continues to be favored over the eastern
contiguous U.S. (CONUS), associated with a strong cold front. Heavy
precipitation is favored ahead of and along this cold front as it moves across
the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states at the start of week-2. Much below-normal
temperatures and gusty winds are favored in the wake of the front. Freezing and
near-freezing conditions are possible in some areas, potentially damaging early
spring blooms.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for the central and eastern Great
Lakes region, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and parts of the Northeast and Upper
Mid-Atlantic, Sun, May 10.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation over much of the Gulf Coast region, Sun-Tue,
May 10-12.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation from the Upper Ohio Valley eastward across
portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coastal plain, Wed-Fri, May 13-15.

Slight risk of high winds for the central and eastern Great Lakes region, Upper
Ohio Valley, parts of the Appalachians, the Northeast, and the Upper
Mid-Atlantic region, Sun-Tue, May 10-12.

Slight risk of high winds over the south-central Great Basin, Sun-Wed, May
10-13.

Slight risk of extreme heat for the Desert Southwest, Sun-Fri, May 10-15.

Slight risk of extreme heat for central and southern Florida, Sun-Mon, May
10-11.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR TUESDAY MAY 05 - SATURDAY MAY 09:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR SUNDAY MAY 10 - SATURDAY MAY 16: The mid-level trough predicted over the
eastern CONUS is expected to weaken during week-2, while the mid-level ridge
upstream over the West is forecast to strengthen. A strong cold front is
predicted to push off the East and Gulf Coasts near the start of week-2. A
slight chance of heavy precipitation (which exceeds the 85th climatological
percentile and 1-inch) is depicted from eastern portions of the Southern Plains
eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast, May 10-12.
Gulf moisture is anticipated to advance northward over the Southern Plains with
time, setting the stage for another developing frontal system over the Nation`s
midsection. The 6z deterministic GFS solution indicates surface dewpoints
should recover fairly quickly along with surface-based CAPE over the western
Gulf Coast region, increasing the chance for significant thunderstorm activity.
The next frontal system (alluded to above) is predicted to approach the
Appalachians by the second half of week-2, and forecast to merge with moist
southerly Atlantic flow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting from
the clockwise circulation of surface high pressure well out over the Atlantic.
This second slight risk area of heavy precipitation is valid for May 13-15. A
combination of the PETs and uncalibrated model guidance was used to determine
the designated slight risk area, where about an inch of rain is forecast.



Cold signals are gradually decreasing in spatial coverage and intensity across
much of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS relative to yesterday. The
moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures posted yesterday has been
removed. The ECENS and GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) support a
slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for the central and eastern Great
Lakes region, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and parts of the Northeast and Upper
Mid-Atlantic, May 10. This means at least a 20% chance that minimum
temperatures will fall below the 15th climatological percentile. There is also
at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures dropping below 38 degrees F
across this region, with freezing temperatures possible across the northern
portions. Any residual cold with freezing or near freezing temperatures may
threaten vulnerable springtime vegetation, particularly in areas that have
experienced early growth due to antecedent warmth in April.



A slight risk of high winds (>85th percentile and 20-25 mph) is indicated from
the central Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley eastward to the Atlantic coast,
from Maine to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, May 10-12. These are expected
in the wake of the strong cold front that is forecast to move across the East
Coast near the start of week-2. Increased wildfire risk is expected well to the
south, over the Florida Peninsula, due to ongoing drought and extreme heat.
Locally gusty winds accompanying the frontal passage may also increase the
wildfire risk, though model guidance favors the stronger and more widespread
wind signals farther to the north as noted earlier. A slight risk of high winds
is also designated for south-central portions of the Great Basin, May 10-13.
Typically during the springtime, any wind speed maxima associated with a
substantial mid-level trough may mix down to the very warm surface, resulting
in higher wind gusts. This is supported by the GEFS and ECENS PETs for wind
speeds of at least 20-25 mph.



South of the mid-level trough across much of the East, weak positive height
anomalies are forecast across central and southern Florida, supporting
increased chances for above-normal temperatures in the region. A slight risk of
extreme heat is designated for this area, May 10-11, where GEFS and CANM
maximum air temperatures have at least a 20% chance of exceeding the 85th
percentile and 90 degrees F. Antecedent dry conditions may support higher
temperatures. This hazard is further supported by indications of CPC heat tools.



There is good agreement among models indicating more amplified ridging across
the West throughout much of week-2, translating to increased signals for
anomalous warmth across the region. A slight risk of excessive heat is
highlighted for the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts throughout most of week-2, where
PETs indicate at least a 20% chance of maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th
percentile and 95 degrees F (100 degrees F locally). HeatRisk tools further
indicate at least a moderate level of impact in this region. Hazardous heat
signals are beginning to show up in parts of the Central Valley of California,
which will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks.



Over the Alaska domain, models indicate possible surface low formation over the
northwestern Gulf of Alaska which could bring unsettled weather to southern
portions of the state. However, no widespread hazards are anticipated at this
time. Additionally, the typical peak of the river ice breakup season is
approaching, and ice jam flooding can occur this time of year with little or no
notice as conditions on frozen rivers can change quickly. Please check with the
Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories.

FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa

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