399
FXUS21 KWNC 101928
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 10 2026

SYNOPSIS: A transition in the weather pattern is predicted over much of the
Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during week-2. Mid-level low pressure is forecast to
move into the Far West, resulting in cooler temperatures. The subtropical ridge
over the Gulf Coast region is predicted to expand northwestward across the
Southern and Central Great Plains as week-2 progresses, increasing spatial
coverage of extreme heat. Weakening mid-level low pressure over the Great Lakes
region and Northeast is forecast to shift eastward with time. Areas of surface
low pressure and accompanying fronts favor above-normal precipitation over a
large portion of the east-central CONUS.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of extreme heat for the Florida Peninsula, Thu-Mon, Jun 18-22.

Slight risk of extreme heat for the Florida Peninsula, Thu-Wed, Jun 18-24.

Slight risk of extreme heat for portions of the Southeast and Lower
Mid-Atlantic, Sat-Mon, Jun 20-22.

Slight risk of extreme heat for eastern portions of the Southern Plains and
eastern Kansas, Fri-Wed, Jun 19-24.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for a large portion of the east-central
CONUS, Thu-Sat, Jun 18-20.

Slight risk of high winds from the High Plains southwestward across central and
southern portions of the Great Basin, Thu-Sat, Jun 18-20.

Slight risk of high winds for the coast of Northern California and southwestern
Oregon, Thu-Sat, Jun 18-20.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY JUNE 13 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 17:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18 - WEDNESDAY JUNE 24: The area of extreme heat highlighted
across the Far West the past several days has been discontinued, as a mid-level
low pressure system advances into the region. This will usher in somewhat
cooler temperatures for many areas, though model guidance indicates a possible
return to warmer weather towards the end of the week-2 outlook period.



Over the Gulf Coast region, subtropical ridging is anticipated to persist and
expand westward and northwestward into the Southern and Central Plains. This
feature is favored to contribute towards areas of extreme heat. A moderate risk
of extreme heat is designated for the Florida Peninsula, Jun 18-22, and a
slight risk of extreme heat is posted during the duration of week-2. Another
slight risk area of extreme heat is depicted for much of the Southeast and
Lower Mid-Atlantic region, Jun 20-22. Bias-corrected GEFS and ECENS Heat Index
guidance for week-2 depicts values in the upper 90s as far north as Maryland
(actual air temperatures about 5 degrees cooler). Heat index values nearing the
mid-90s and actual air temperatures about 5 degrees cooler are predicted as far
north as New York City. In Florida, heat index values are favored to reach or
slightly exceed 105 deg F, even though the actual air temperatures may be about
10 degrees cooler. The National Blend of Models (NBM) predicts near-record or
record high nighttime minimum temperatures across much of the Florida Peninsula
during this time, ranging from about 75-85 deg F. Another area of favored
extreme heat includes eastern portions of the Southern Plains and eastern
Kansas, coincident with the forecast expansion of the subtropical ridge into
these areas. Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) guidance and week-2 Heat Index
guidance indicate actual air temperatures of 95-100 deg F in these areas, and
heat index values at or above 105 deg F.



During week-2, several low pressure areas and accompanying fronts, as well as
thunderstorm clusters (MCS) are forecast to move across the Central and Eastern
CONUS. A slight risk of above-normal precipitation is most warranted from Jun
18-20 over a broad portion of the east-central CONUS, where PET guidance shows
precipitation values in excess of the 85th percentile of the historical
distribution and greater than 1-inch. The ECENS and GEFS PETs show some slight
differences in the predicted location of the heaviest precipitation, with the
GEFS favoring a precipitation distribution that is shifted slightly towards the
east and south, and the ECENS favoring a distribution that is shifted slightly
towards the west and north. Sufficient low-level Gulf moisture streaming
northward from the Gulf Coast will provide the fuel necessary for precipitation
and thunderstorm activity. Though no specific flooding areas are designated on
today`s map, any thunderstorms that form and keep moving over the same regions
could result in localized flooding and potentially hazardous conditions. Strong
onshore flow may also elevate water levels along the Gulf Coast in addition to
flash flooding possible.



A series of surface lows across the West early in week-2 support a slight risk
of periods of high winds for the Interior West and High Plains, Jun 18-20.
Adjacent surface high pressure over the Northeastern Pacific supports a slight
risk of high winds also for coastal parts of southwestern Oregon and northern
California for the same period. The PETs indicate at least a 20% chance for
many of these areas exceeding the 85th percentile and uncalibrated ECENS and
GEFS ensembles showing enhanced probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 20mph
(>34 mph for parts of the West Coast). Gusty wind speeds may enhance wildfire
risk especially across parts of the Four Corners region and the Southwest,
where the National Interagency Fire Center indicates moderate risk of
significant fire potential by the end of week-1 and where there are currently
active fires.

FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa

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