379
FXUS21 KWNC 301825
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 30 2025

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level high pressure is favored to be a dominant feature over the
Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) for much of the week-2 forecast period, resulting in
generally quiet weather from a hazards perspective. Temperatures for much of
the Lower 48 are likely to be above-normal, potentially reaching hazardous
thresholds for portions of the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Mid-level
low pressure along the West Coast at the outset of week-2 is favored to bring
enhanced winds to much of the Great Basin, Southern Rockies, as well as
portions of the Great Plains.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of extreme heat for the Sonoran Desert, Thu-Sat, Aug 7-9.

Slight risk of extreme heat for the Sonoran Desert, southern Nevada,
southeastern California and the San Joaquin Valley, Thu-Wed, Aug 7-13.

Slight risk of extreme heat for portions of the Southern and Central Plains and
the Desert Southwest, Thu-Sun, Aug 7-10.

Slight risk of episodic high winds for much of the Great Basin as well as
portions of the Desert Southwest, Central and Northern Rockies, and Northern
High Plains, Thu-Sat, Aug 7-9.

Slight risk of episodic high winds for much of the Texas-Mexico border,
Thu-Mon, Aug 7-11.

Slight risk of high winds for coastal California from Point Conception to Cape
Mendocino, Thu-Mon, Aug 7-11.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY AUGUST 02 - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 06:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR THURSDAY AUGUST 07 - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 13: Ensemble solutions for 500-hPa
height anomalies from the GEFS, ECMWF, and CMCE all indicate widespread ridging
over the Lower 48 for most of the forecast period, ushering in a period of
relatively quiet, but warmer than average, weather. However, model guidance has
been consistently depicting a very strong ridge over the southwestern CONUS
over the last few days, accompanied by scorching temperatures at the surface.
Ensemble mean maximum temperatures from both the GEFS and ECMWF indicate
temperatures above 110F across the Sonoran Desert throughout the week, and
exceeding 115F early in the period. Ensemble means also favor temperatures
above 105F for the San Joaquin Valley as well as much of the Southern and
Central Plains, and above 100F extending into lower elevations of New Mexico
including Albuquerque. The Sonoran Desert in particular is highlighted for
extreme heat by a variety of our forecast tools in both probabilistic and
deterministic metrics, especially early in week-2. Therefore a moderate risk of
extreme heat is posted for the Sonoran Desert for Aug 7-9, as well as a slight
risk of extreme heat that extends westward to the Mojave Desert and San Joaquin
Valley for all of week-2, Aug 7-13. A slight risk of extreme heat is posted for
southeast Arizona, higher elevations of New Mexico, and portions of the
Southern and Central Plains for Aug 7-10.



At the outset of week-2 a weakening trough over the Northern Tier is favored to
enhance daytime winds for much of the interior western CONUS. A slight risk of
high winds is posted for much of the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, Central and
Northern Rockies, and Northern High Plains for Aug 7-9, where the ECMWF
Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) indicates at least a 20% chance of 3-day
maximum winds to exceed the 85th percentile. The GEFS PET is less bullish,
confining enhanced winds primarily to the northern Great Basin, but raw
probabilistic guidance from both model ensembles indicate very high likelihood
of daytime winds exceeding 10 kts for the same period of time, after which this
threshold becomes less likely. The region is also favored for below-normal
precipitation and above-normal temperatures, the combination of which creates a
very favorable environment for initiation and rapid growth of wildfires.



The summer subtropical surface high over the North Pacific has been quite
strong recently, which has had the potential of enhancing coastal winds typical
for this time of year. Model guidance for week-2 indicates that this
enhancement is likely for much of the forecast period. The GEFS and ECMWF PETs
both indicate very high probabilities (>60%) of winds near the California coast
exceeding 25 mph through Aug 11, therefore a slight risk of high winds is
posted for coastal portions of California from Point Conception to Cape
Mendocino for Aug 7-11.



Models also depict enhanced easterly winds over the western Gulf and extending
into southern Texas throughout the forecast period, associated with tropical
flow and enhanced by surface low pressure over the Great Plains. This
enhancement is greatest at the outset of week-2 where ensemble mean wind speeds
exceed 20mph for much of South Texas. Troughing weakens quickly so enhanced
surface winds diminish somewhat, but ensemble mean daily maximum winds along
the Texas-Mexico border remain elevated through Aug 11. Therefore, a slight
risk of episodic high winds is posted for much of the Texas-Mexico border and
southeastern New Mexico for Aug 7-11.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran

$$