091
FXUS21 KWNC 211859
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 21 2025

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure is predicted to track across the southern tier
of the U.S. (CONUS) during week-2. This feature is likely to support a series
of surface lows and associated fronts increasing the risk of episodic hazardous
precipitation and wind speeds for the southeastern U.S. by the middle of
week-2. Surface low formation over the eastern Four Corners may lead to
accumulating upslope snow across the Northern and Central Rockies, Mar 3-5.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of periods of heavy precipitation for eastern Texas, the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeastern U.S., Mon-Wed, Mar 3-5.

Slight risk of high winds for coastal portions of the Gulf Coast, Southeastern
U.S., and southern Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Wed, Mar 3-5.

Slight risk of heavy snow for the Northern and Central Rockies, Mon-Wed, Mar
3-5.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY FEBRUARY 24 - FRIDAY FEBRUARY 28:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR SATURDAY MARCH 01 - FRIDAY MARCH 07: Multiple models depict mid-level
shortwave troughs tracking across the southern tier of the U.S. during week-2.
This pattern is favorable for a series of surface lows and associated fronts
bringing potentially impactful weather to parts of the southeastern CONUS. A
slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation is posted for eastern Texas, the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeastern U.S. Mar 3-5, where
the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE PETs show at least a 20% chance of 3-day liquid
equivalent totals exceeding the 85th climatological percentile and 1 inch.
Enhanced precipitation may lead to localized flooding in areas that are
currently saturated, especially if thunderstorms occur. Additionally a slight
risk of high winds is designated for coastal portions of the Gulf Coast,
Southeastern U.S., and southern Mid-Atlantic for the same period associated
with this active storm pattern. Multiple model PETs indicate at least a 20%
chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 25 mph.



There is multi-model depiction of a surface low forming over the eastern Four
Corners region which may be a favorable setup for heavy upslope snow across
parts of the Northern and Central Rockies. Therefore a slight risk of heavy
snow is highlighted for these areas Mar 3-5 where the GEFS PET indicates at
least a 20% chance of 3-day snow water equivalent totals exceeding the 85th
percentile and half an inch (1 inch locally). The uncalibrated ECENS ensemble
mean shows the potential for the highlighted risk area receiving at least 4
inches of snow, with some recent deterministic GFS model solutions showing
multiple inches of snow accumulation per day for some areas. There is
significant uncertainty regarding the details of the location and accumulation
totals locally so a broad area and time period is designated for the heavy snow
hazard.



Anomalous cold is predicted for much of the East during week-2, with the PETs
showing at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures falling to the lowest
15th percentile and below zero deg F (negative wind chill values) across the
Northeast U.S., with probabilities reaching these thresholds greatest at the
beginning of the period and decreasing with time. Temperatures are not expected
to dip below advisory criteria so no associated hazard is posted at this time.



Above-normal 500 hPa heights are anticipated across most of Alaska during
week-2 leading to above-normal temperatures favored across the state. At this
time model guidance and tools do not indicate increased potential of any
weather related hazards.

FORECASTER: Melissa Ou

$$