445
FXUS21 KWNC 051953
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 05 2026

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level high pressure initially over eastern North America is
expected to deamplify while

pushing northeastward early week-2, leaving a lingering potential for extreme
heat across

much of the East Coast. Prevailing above-normal temperatures, combined  with
insufficient

rainfall and antecedent dryness, increases the potential for Rapid Onset
Drought (ROD) over

the southwestern Great Lakes Region. Farther south, a southerly fetch of
tropical moisture

into the Southeast for most of week-2 is expected to abet locally heavy
rainfall due to

thunderstorm activity, resulting in a slight risk of heavy precipitation there.

Additionally, surface low pressure may develop in the Gulf and move into the
Southeast,

increasing the intensity and coverage of heavy rainfall in its vicinity.
Meanwhile, an

amplified mid-level ridge along the West Coast is expected to increase the
potential for

extreme heat for much of the West before weakening and retrograding later in
the period.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of extreme heat across the lower Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and
Southeast, Sat-

Sun, Jun 13-14.

Slight risk of extreme heat in the Desert Southwest, California Valleys,
Pacific Northwest,

and northern Intermountain West, Sat-Wed, Jun 13-17.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation over the central and eastern Gulf Coast and
the adjacent

Southeast, Sat-Thu, Jun 13-18.

Rapid onset drought possible for parts of northeastern Illinois and
northwestern Indiana.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY JUNE 08 - FRIDAY JUNE 12:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR SATURDAY JUNE 13 - FRIDAY JUNE 19: At the start of week-2, the models all
depict a mid-level ridge over eastern North America

that is in the process of deamplifying and pushing eastward. As a result,
unusually hot

weather anticipated  for the central and eastern CONUS during week-1 is
expected to

moderate early week-2, but a lingering risk of extreme heat is anticipated
during the

first two days of the period along the Eastern Seaboard. The largest positive
500-hPa

height anomalies are expected over the Northeast, but the model forecasts are
only in fair

agreement regarding the evolution of the height field around eastern North
America early

week-2, and the differences between model solutions introduce uncertainty
regarding the

location and duration of extreme heat. The National Blend of Models at the
start of week-2

highlights the potential for numerous daily record highs across eastern Ohio,
the central

and northern Appalachians, and the Northeast on day 8 (Sat Jun 13), but
probabilistic

guidance from the European ensembles shows the best chances for hazardous heat
(enhanced

by enhanced humidity) across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. The 12z European
dynamical

model (ECMWF) from yesterday depicted temperatures approaching 105 deg F across
the Mid-

Atlantic, but the ensuing 0z run showed the highest temperatures farther south,
from

southern Virginia through the Carolinas and adjacent Georgia. In addition, the

Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) from the European ensemble (ECENS) depicted a
greater

than 60 percent chance of temperatures among the warmest 15 percent of
climatology at the

outset of week-2 from Upstate New York through the Carolinas, but the PETs from
the

Canadian ensemble (CMCE) and GEFS are less robust and farther north, with odds
of 30 to 40

percent covering the northern half of the Eastern Seaboard. The uncertainties
of intensity

and location preclude posting any moderate risk, thus a slight risk of extreme
heat is

highlighted from Georgia through Upstate New York and portions of New England
for the

first two days of week-2. Mid-level heights are forecast to drop closer to
normal after

that with a mid-level trough encroaching from the west, ending the extreme heat
risk.



For the past several weeks, precipitation has been significantly below normal
over

portions of the western Great Lakes region and adjacent parts of the
Mississippi Valley.

Recently, the U.S. Drought Monitor has highlighted abnormally dry conditions
across this

region, and the weekly issue released this morning introduced some moderate
drought in

portions of this area. The week-2 precipitation outlook depicts marginally
enhanced

chances for above-normal precipitation across this area, but the expected hot
weather and

associated increases in evaporative moisture losses, in conjunction with the
elevated

human and ecological demand for surface water inherent to summertime, makes it
likely that

the precipitation will not be sufficient to offset surface moisture losses. As
a result, a

potential for rapid-onset drought (ROD) is maintained across much of northern
Illinois and

northwestern Indiana. Farther in the areas where drought was introduced this
week, some

relatively quick deterioration into more severe drought classifications is
possible.



As the mid-level ridge decays and departs from the eastern CONUS, high pressure
is

expected to settle into the western Atlantic and persist through much of
week-2. This

establishes a persistent low-level southerly fetch of tropical moisture across
the Gulf

and Southeast. This area is expected to be under broadly cyclonic mid-level
flow between

the ridge departing to the northeast and a trough gradually digging into the
Mississippi

Valley and Great Lakes, establishing a favorable environment for showers and
thunderstorm

activity. With ample moisture being pulled northward from the tropics, any
thunderstorms

that develop have the potential to produce locally intense rainfall, supporting
a slight

risk of heavy precipitation across the central and eastern Gulf Coast region
and adjacent

portions of the Southeast. In addition, a subset of models continues to show
some surface

low pressure development somewhere in the Gulf that eventually moves inland. If
that

occurs, it would induce heavier precipitation that is more widespread across
areas near

the track of the low pressure center. Models, however, have not been consistent
in showing

this low pressure development, and in cases where it is depicted, its intensity
and track

vary from run-to-run and model-to-model, providing low confidence in forecasts
for any

specific time and location. But even with highly uncertain specifics, these
factors

generally support a slight risk of heavy rainfall across the region for most of
week-2.



Most tools depict an amplified mid-level ridge near the western CONUS coastline
at the

start of week-2, with the largest positive 500-hPa height anomalies extending
from the

coastal Pacific Northwest into the adjacent Pacific. This ridge either
deamplifies in

place with time (CMCE mean solution) or retrogrades toward the central North
Pacific

(ECENS and GEFS means). Either way, above-normal but slowly decreasing 500-hPa
heights are

anticipated across the West over the course of week-2, resulting in a period of
hot

weather peaking around day 9 (Jun 14) and lingering until later week-2. The
ECENS mean is

somewhat more anomalous with the mid-level ridge strength than the GEFS and
CMCE means,

which is reflected in the PETs. The ECENS PET shows 40 to 60 percent chances
for

temperatures reaching the top 15 percent of climatological occurrences from
northern

California northward, with 20 to 40 percent chances indicated farther south. In
contrast,

PETs from the CMCE and GEFS depict 30 to 40 percent chances along the full
length of the

Western Seaboard into the Desert Southwest and Intermountain West. ECENS output
indicates

high chances (over 70 percent) for temperatures to exceed 100 deg F in the
Deserts and the

California Valleys, with low chances (10 to 25 percent) for highs to reach 110
deg F there

and approach 100 deg F as far north as southeastern Washington and southwestern
Idaho.

Other ensembles are less robust, but still show enhanced chances for extreme
heat. With

mid-level heights only gradually decreasing over the course of week-2, the
slight risk of

extreme heat is expected to linger until late in the period.



In Alaska, river ice breakup season is ending, but many rivers north of the
Brooks Range

remain icebound. River breakup flooding can occur with little or no notice as
conditions

on frozen rivers can change quickly, so please check with the Alaska Pacific
River

Forecast Center for the latest conditions and advisories.

FORECASTER: Rich Tinker

$$