537
FXUS21 KWNC 021812
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 02 2025

SYNOPSIS: Progressive mid-level flow favors relatively weak low pressure
systems tracking west-to-east across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during
mid-October. Prior to week-2, a tropical cyclone (TC) is likely to develop
offshore of southwestern Mexico with a subsequent track northwestward near the
Baja Peninsula. Due to this potential TC in the East Pacific, there is an
increased chance of heavy rainfall across the Four Corners region and Desert
Southwest at the outset of the forecast period. A Rapid Onset Drought risk
remains for parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley where
above-normal temperatures and limited precipitation is forecast over the next 2
weeks. Over Alaska, a pair of strong low pressure systems may bring high winds
to portions of the Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea coasts.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Four Corners region and
Desert Southwest, Fri, Oct 10.

Slight risk of high winds for coastal areas of western Mainland Alaska, the
Alaska Peninsula, and the Aleutians, Fri-Sun, Oct 10-12.

Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) possible for parts of Texas and Louisiana.



DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 05 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 09:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 10 - THURSDAY OCTOBER 16: As of 11am PDT on October 2, the
National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a broad area of disturbed weather
offshore of southwestern Mexico and states that there is a 90 percent chance of
a TC forming in this area during the next 7 days. Model guidance remains
consistent indicating this potential TC tracking northwestward near the Baja
Peninsula. Todays model solutions are less bullish with respect to both the
intensity and duration of this event, with large differences in ensemble mean
precipitation between the GEFS and ECMWF. Despite the large ensemble spread, a
slight risk of heavy precipitation remains posted for October 10 from
southwestern Colorado and New Mexico west across Arizona into southeastern
California. The large ensemble spread precludes posting a moderate risk of
heavy precipitation at this time. Flash flooding may accompany any locally
heavy rain that occurs.



An amplified 500-hPa trough over the Bering Sea is forecast to result in a pair
of deepening surface low pressure systems affecting western Mainland Alaska,
the Alaska Peninsula, and Aleutians during early to mid-October. Based on
pattern recognition with good model agreement on moderately strong low pressure
systems and support from the GEFS and ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tools, a
slight risk of episodic high winds is posted for western Mainland Alaska along
the Bering and Chukchi Sea costs along with the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula.
This wind hazard is valid over the first three days of the period (October
10-12) as there is an increasing chance of two strong low pressure systems.



Across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and central Mississippi, 30-day
precipitation deficits range from 2 to 5 inches. This antecedent dryness along
with little to no precipitation anticipated during the next week to ten days
and increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures (highs in the mid 80s to
low 90s) results in a rapid onset drought risk for portions of southeastern
Texas, much of Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran

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