974
FXUS21 KWNC 191944
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 19 2025

SYNOPSIS: Strong mid-level high pressure continues to be predicted over the
higher latitudes of North America, with downstream mid-level low pressure
across areas east of the Rockies during week-2. This pattern favors cold Arctic
air sinking from the western half of Canada into the western Contiguous U.S.
(CONUS), leading to increased chances for much below normal temperatures for
many areas east of the Rockies. Enhanced odds for high winds across the Great
Plains would result in colder wind chill temperatures. A series of surface lows
across the West is favored to increase the likelihood of heavy snow for high
elevations across the Cascades, Klamath mountains, and Sierra Nevada, shifting
to the Rockies and Utah. Heavy snow is also possible across parts of the Upper
Midwest and Northeast as some of these lows and associated fronts move
northeastward.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the CONUS east of
the Rockies, Thu-Wed, Nov 27-Dec 3.

Slight risk of heavy snow for the Cascades ,Klamath mountains, and Sierra
Nevada, Fri-Wed, Nov 28-Dec 3.

Slight risk of heavy snow for parts of the Rockies and Utah, Sat-Wed, Nov
29-Dec 3.

Slight risk of heavy snow for parts of the Midwest and western portions of the
Northeast, Sun-Wed, Nov 30-Dec 3.

Slight risk of high winds across the Great Plains, Fri-Wed, Nov 28-Dec 3.

Slight risk of high winds for coastal portions of southeastern Alaska, Thu-Sun,
Nov 27-Nov 30.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 22 - WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27 - WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 03: Mid-level ridging over Alaska
and the northeastern Pacific continues to be predicted, contributing to a
deepening mid-level trough downstream across areas east of the Rockies. This
pattern supports surface high pressure bringing cold Arctic air to much of the
central and eastern CONUS during week-2. A slight risk of much below normal
temperatures is highlighted across many areas east of the Rockies throughout
week-2. The GEFS, ECENS, and Canadian Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PET)
generally indicate at least a 20% chance of minimum temperatures falling to the
lowest 15th climatological percentile and below freezing across many parts of
the highlighted areas. Additionally, a slight risk of high winds is designated
for the Great Plains, Nov 28-Dec 3, which could support colder wind chill
temperatures.



A series of surface lows and fronts are predicted to develop across the western
CONUS associated with the series of mid-level troughs, supporting increased
likelihood for enhanced snowfall for various areas. A slight risk of heavy snow
is posted for the Cascades, Klamath mountains, and Sierra Nevada, Nov 28-Dec 3.
Portions of the Great Basin are also highlighted with a slight risk of heavy
snow for Nov 29-Dec 3 as a mid-level trough re-develops over the Intermountain
West by the middle of week-2. Additionally, a broad area is highlighted with a
slight risk of heavy snow across parts of the Midwest and western portions of
the Northeast, Nov 30-Dec 3. Heavy lake effect snow is possible in the Great
Lakes area with tracking surface lows and associated fronts. The GEFS PET shows
at least a 20% of the designated heavy snow risk area receiving 3-day snow
water equivalent totals exceeding the 85th percentile, with the great amounts
anticipated for high elevation areas across the Rockies and Cascades.
Uncalibrated ensembles show increased chances for some of these areas receiving
greater than 4 inches over a 3-day period (greater than 6 inches locally).
Anticipated gusty winds combined with snowfall could support blowing snow and
resulting decreased visibility, especially across parts of the Northern and
Central Plains during the Thanksgiving travel period.



Surface low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska combined with adjacent surface
high pressure over British Columbia and the Yukon may lead to a tight pressure
gradient along coastal portions of south-central and southeastern Alaska. This
pattern may be favorable for gap winds in channels in some of these areas
during Thanksgiving travel. Therefore a slight risk of high winds is continued
for coastal portions of southeastern Alaska, Nov 27-30.

FORECASTER: Melissa Ou

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