906
FXUS21 KWNC 111816
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 11 2026

SYNOPSIS: A weak mid-level trough is forecast over the Pacific coast states,
resulting in near- to above-normal temperatures. The subtropical ridge over the
Southeast and Gulf Coast region is predicted to expand northwestward across the
Southern and Central Great Plains as week-2 progresses, increasing spatial
coverage of extreme heat. Mid-level low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes
region and Northeast is forecast to shift eastward with time. Above-normal
precipitation is favored over a large portion of the east-central CONUS due to
a combination of passing surface lows, fronts, and thunderstorm clusters.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of extreme heat for the central and southern Florida Peninsula,
Fri-Tue, Jun 19-23.

Slight risk of extreme heat for the entire Florida Peninsula, Fri-Thu, Jun
19-25.

Slight risk of extreme heat for portions of the Southeast and Lower
Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Mon, Jun 19-22.

Slight risk of extreme heat for much of the Southern Plains and Central Plains,
Sat-Thu, Jun 20-25.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for a large portion of the east-central
CONUS, Fri-Tue, Jun 19-23.

Slight risk of high winds over the Northeast and Lower Great Lakes region,
Fri-Sat, Jun 19-20.

Slight risk of high winds from the central and southern High Plains westward
across much of the Rockies, and central and southern portions of the Great
Basin, Fri-Sun, Jun 19-21.

Slight risk of high winds for the coast of Northern California and southwestern
Oregon, Fri-Sun, Jun 19-21.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY JUNE 14 - THURSDAY JUNE 18:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19 - THURSDAY JUNE 25: A mid-level trough predicted over the
West Coast states is anticipated to bring near-normal temperatures from
Washington state and Oregon southward through central California, with
above-normal temperatures favored over southern California. During week-2,
mid-level ridging and warmer temperatures are forecast across the interior West.



Over the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, subtropical ridging is anticipated to
persist and expand westward and northwestward into the Southern and Central
Plains. This feature is favored to contribute towards areas of extreme heat. A
moderate risk of extreme heat is designated for the central and southern
Florida Peninsula, Jun 19-23, and a slight risk of extreme heat is posted for
the entire Florida Peninsula during the duration of week-2. Another slight risk
area of extreme heat is depicted for much of the Southeast and Lower
Mid-Atlantic region, Jun 19-22. Bias-corrected GEFS and ECENS Heat Index
guidance for week-2 depicts values in the upper 90s as far north as Maryland
(actual air temperatures about 5 degrees cooler). Heat index values nearing 95
deg F and actual air temperatures about 5 degrees cooler are predicted as far
north as New York City. In Florida, heat index values are favored to reach or
slightly exceed 105 deg F, even though the actual air temperatures may be about
10 degrees cooler. The National Blend of Models (NBM) predicts near-record or
record high nighttime minimum temperatures across much of the Florida Peninsula
during this time, ranging from about 75-85 deg F. Another area of favored
extreme heat includes the Great Plains from southern Nebraska to the Rio Grande
Valley in Texas, coincident with the forecast expansion of the subtropical
ridge into these areas. This represents an increase in spatial coverage of
extreme heat relative to yesterday. Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs)
guidance and week-2 Heat Index guidance indicate actual air temperatures in the
mid to upper 90s in these areas, and heat index values at or above 105 deg F,
due to dew point temperatures well up into the 60s and low 70s. A moderate risk
of extreme heat may need to be designated tomorrow for the vicinity of the
central and southern High Plains, pending reassessment of model guidance.
Dynamical model guidance indicates the ridge over the Southern and Central
Plains is more likely to expand westward across the Rockies and into the
Intermountain West rather than amplify northward across the Northern Plains.
This is likely due to the prolonged presence of an east-west-oriented mid-level
trough over central Canada, which prevents the ridge from building northward.
In addition, any shortwave disturbances rounding the base of this trough and
also the base of the West Coast trough are expected to move eastward across the
Northern Rockies and Northern Plains region. This scenario favors a
continuation of unsettled, stormy weather over much of the north-central and
east-central states.



During week-2, several low pressure areas and accompanying fronts, as well as
thunderstorm clusters (MCS) are forecast to move across the central and
east-central CONUS. A slight risk of above-normal precipitation is most
warranted from Jun 19-23 over a broad portion of the east-central CONUS, where
PET guidance shows precipitation values in excess of the 85th percentile of the
historical distribution and greater than 1-inch. The ECENS and GEFS PETs are in
very good agreement today on the predicted location of the heaviest
precipitation. Sufficient low-level Gulf moisture streaming northward from the
Gulf Coast will provide the fuel necessary for precipitation and thunderstorm
activity. Though no specific flooding areas are designated on today`s map, any
slow-moving or stalled thunderstorms could result in localized flooding and
potentially hazardous conditions. Strong onshore flow may also elevate water
levels along the Gulf Coast in addition to flash flooding possible.



A frontal system is expected to move across the Great Lakes region and
Northeast towards the end of the week-1 period. By the start of week-2 as the
system moves off the coast, gusty winds are anticipated behind the accompanying
cold front. A slight risk of high winds (20-25 mph, gusts to 35 mph or more) is
posted for Jun 19-20 (days 8 and of the forecast period).



A series of surface lows across the West early in week-2 support a slight risk
of periods of high winds for parts of the Interior West, Rockies, and High
Plains, Jun 19-21. Adjacent surface high pressure over the Northeastern Pacific
supports a slight risk of high winds also for coastal parts of southwestern
Oregon and northern California for the same period. The ECENS PET indicates at
least a 20% chance for many of these areas exceeding the 85th percentile and
uncalibrated ECENS and GEFS ensembles showing enhanced probabilities of wind
gusts ranging from 20-35 mph, locally greater. Gusty wind speeds may enhance
wildfire risk especially across parts of the Four Corners region and the
Southwest, where the National Interagency Fire Center indicates a moderate risk
of significant fire potential by the end of week-1 and where there are
currently active fires.

FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa

$$