498
FXUS21 KWNC 021917
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 02 2026

SYNOPSIS: Mid-level low pressure moving off the northeastern contiguous U.S.
(CONUS) and corresponding low pressure brings chances for much below normal
temperatures and strong winds early in the week-2 period. Meanwhile, in the
Southwest, an area of mid-level low pressure increases chances for heavy
precipitation to parts of southern California and the Desert Southwest and
heavy snow across the higher elevations of the Four Corners region. As this
system moves east, there are signs for potentially heavy snow across the
north-central CONUS.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic, Tue, Feb 10.

Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for parts of the Northeast, Great
Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Tue-Wed, Feb 10-11.

Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic,
Tue-Wed, Feb 10-11.

Slight risk of episodic high winds for portions of the High Plains, Tue-Mon,
Feb 10-16.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of southern California and
Arizona, Tue-Thu, Feb 10-12.

Slight risk of heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Tue-Wed, Feb 10-11.

Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Four Corners, Northern and
Central Rockies, the Northern and Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley,
Tue-Fri, Feb 10-13.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY FEBRUARY 05 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 09:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 10 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 16: Hazardous cold temperatures will
be entrenched across the eastern CONUS at the outset of week-2. However, the
ensemble means from GEFS, ECENS, CMCE depict temperatures beginning to moderate
by the middle of week-2. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) from ECENS,
CNENS, and GEFS all show week-2 starting out with enhanced likelihoods of much
below normal temperatures over at least portions of the eastern one-third of
the CONUS. From the Upper Mid-Atlantic and Upper Ohio Valley into western New
England, both the ECENS and GEFS PETs show at least a 40 percent chance of
minimum temperatures within the coldest 15 percent of the climatological range.
The ECENS and GEFS ensemble means both forecast temperatures of 20 to 30F below
normal from the Delmarva Peninsula and central Pennsylvania through western New
England. The GEFS forecasts much below normal temperatures further west than
the other ensemble means, with temperatures 20F below normal or colder into the
Midwest. A moderate risk of much below normal temperatures is posted for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Feb 10. A broader slight risk of
much below normal temperatures is posted for parts of the Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Feb 10-11.



Early in week-2, a strong low pressure center east of New England is expected
to be moving away from the CONUS while high pressure pushes toward the region
from the west. The pressure gradient created by this setup would bring high
winds to parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This signal is less
impressive relative to yesterday, with the storm system farther away from the
Atlantic Coast, but a preponderance of the models show at least a moderate
pressure gradient across the region early in the period supporting a slight
risk of high winds for Feb 10-11. Strong and gusty winds are likely to lower
wind chill values over the region supporting the aforementioned moderate risk
of much below normal temperatures.



The deterministic ECMWF, CMC, and GFS models all show the potential for
periodic strong winds across the Front Range and High Plains. The models are
not in agreement on the specifics of location and timing, but all show periods
of enhanced high wind risk from either a tight pressure gradient and upsloping
winds from the east, or downsloping chinook winds from the west. Affected
locations, if any, will vary with time, but with the models inconsistent in
forecasting exactly which locations will be affected on which days, the whole
area is broad-brushed with a slight risk of high winds that continues through
week-2.



A quick moving mid-level trough is forecast to be over southwestern CONUS early
in the week-2 period. The PETs and raw model guidance indicate enhanced chances
for precipitation to exceed the 85th climatological percentile and at least 1
inch over portions of Southern California and southern Arizona. Therefore, a
slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for Feb 10-12. Along the Sierra
Nevada, as the trough deepens and moves inland, a heavy snow risk is possible.
The National Blend of Models is forecasting at least a few inches of snow
around Feb 10 and 11 and a corresponding hazard is posted. Meanwhile, over the
higher elevations of the broader Four Corners region heavy snow is possible
particularly over the Mogollon Rim, Wasatch and San Juan ranges. A slight risk
of heavy snow is posted for this region for Feb 10-12.



As this energy moves east, cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rocky Mountains is
possible. There are a lot of uncertainties regarding if development will occur
and where it would happen. At this time, most tools indicate any low pressure
to be relatively weak. The highest confidence area is for heavy snow across
portions of Central and Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley for
Feb 11-13. Various tools show the potential for heavy precipitation associated
with this system further south but the timing and location is highly uncertain
and no corresponding hazard is posted but will be monitored.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

$$