320
FNUS75 KTFX 311318
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Goguen Hand Piles...Rocky Mountain Ranger District, MT-HLF
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
718 AM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on March 31.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Daytime instability will develop along the southern Rocky Mountain
Front late this morning or early afternoon, resulting in an
opportunity for a mix of rain and snow showers, with a few
thunderstorms in the cards as well. This opportunity lasts through
early evening before precipitation becomes more stratiform in
nature tonight into Tuesday. The probability for 2 inches of snow
at the prescribed burn area through Tuesday night is roughly 55%,
with a roughly 35% chance for 4 inches over the same timeframe.
The timeframe most favorable for snow accumulation is late tonight
into Tuesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain and snow
                    showers likely in the afternoon with a slight
                    chance for a thunderstorm in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of thunder...15.
Max temperature.....48-53.
Min humidity........52-57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds around 5 mph.Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the west 15
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........77  78  78  74  65  67  67  78  71  69
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC
Weather type....            SN  RS  RS  RS  RS  RS  RS
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............29  31  37  41  45  47  47  48  49  47
RH..............93  85  63  56  53  53  54  55  55  56
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  15  15  20  20  20  15  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Snow showers
                    likely with possible showers and thunderstorms
                    in the evening, then chance of snow overnight.
CWR.................15 percent increasing to 35 percent overnight.
Chance of thunder...15.
Min temperature.....27-32.
Max humidity........68-73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 20 mph after 3 am.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65  69  80  76  78  72  75  87  89  91  88  83
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RS  RS  SW  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  40  40  40  40  40  40
Temp............46  44  38  36  35  34  34  34  34  33  33  31
RH..............74  75  76  73  73  73  69  68  68  68  68  68
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  10  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  20  20

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow likely.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 45 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...0.
Max temperature.....41-46.
Min humidity........49-54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 20 mph.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  87  88  88  95  92  88  88  88  84  84  84
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  50  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............31  31  30  33  37  39  40  41  42  42  42  41
RH..............62  62  61  61  65  62  61  62  63  63  64  65
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Matthew Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2508354.0/TFX
.DELDT 03/31/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.baker2@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov