622
FNUS75 KTFX 181444
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Elk Creek Hand Piles...Rocky Mountain Ranger District MT-HLF
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
744 AM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on February 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Brief upper level ridging tonight into early tomorrow will be
sandwiched by two systems producing mainly light snow at the
prescribed burn area. Snow diminishes this afternoon before
increasing in likelihood again late tomorrow afternoon. Cold
temperatures will remain in place through tonight, but begin to
trend warmer tomorrow afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow early in
                    the morning, then chance of snow early
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................40 percent.
Max temperature.....4-9.
Min humidity........54-59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.

TIME (MST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........97  96  95  94  90  86  82  83  85  80
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............-11 -8  -4  -1  1   2   4   5   2   0
RH..............93  66  62  59  61  60  61  65  66  68
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..0   0   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   0
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  N   NE  NE
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
Min temperature.....9 below-14 below zero.
Max humidity........75-80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Variable around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Variable around 5 mph.

TIME (MST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  62  54  45  37  28  26  23  21  22  22  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............-5  -6  -6  -5  -5  -4  -3  -3  -3  -2  -6  0
RH..............78  79  79  75  72  72  75  67  70  65  60  63
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   0   0   0   0   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  5   5   5   5   5   5       10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.E   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow likely late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Max temperature.....27-32.
Min humidity........49-54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph.

TIME (MST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  30  34  40  46  66  66  66  89  89  89  94
Weather cov.....                                    SCH CHC LKY
Weather type....                                    SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  0
Chc of thdr (%).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Temp............1   1   6   12  19  23  26  27  27  26  25  24
RH..............71  72  74  62  57  54  53  54  57  58  60  63
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   0   0   5   5   5   0   0
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Matthew Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2502999.0/TFX
.DELDT 02/18/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.baker2@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov