884
FNUS75 KTFX 180952
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Bear Gulch...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
352 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level low pressure tracks from Oregon and southern Idaho
today to Wyoming on Saturday, circulating substantial moisture
into the region. Daytime humidity will remain elevated today with
widespread cloud-cover and an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms developing late this afternoon, mainly after 1700.
The risk for showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy
precipitation rates is greatest between 1800 and midnight tonight
with a widespread but lighter rainfall likely to continue into
Saturday. There is 70% probability that precipitation totals
through Saturday exceed 1.0".

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 40 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...30 percent.
Max temperature.....69-74.
Min humidity........43-48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon, then shifting to the northeast late
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Variable to north up to 10 mph through mid-day,
                    becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  51  47  43  33  33  50  53  58  65  69  74
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  40  40  40  40  40  40
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  30  30  30
Temp............53  53  54  56  59  61  63  68  69  70  71  69
RH..............78  78  78  75  74  70  65  58  53  48  48  49
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT wind spd..0   0   0   0   0   0   5   5   5   5   5   10
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.5 3.5 5.0 4.5 4.5 3.0
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   SW  SW  W   NE  NW  NE  N   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.5   5   10  10  5   5   5   5   5   10  10  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of thunderstorms
                    in the evening. Rain showers through the night.
CWR.................80 percent.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.
Min temperature.....52-57.
Max humidity........90-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North to northwest 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near evening
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph becoming 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........86  89  96  96  96  94  94  92  92  92  90  94
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80
Chc of thdr (%).30  30  30  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............67  66  64  62  61  61  61  61  59  59  58  56
RH..............60  62  63  68  70  71  71  71  74  75  78  81
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NW  N   N   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  5   5   5   5   5   5   0   0   0   0   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  10  10          5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  5   10  10  10  10  10  10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain in the morning,
                    then rain showers likely and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................75 percent decreasing to 55 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...15 percent.
Max temperature.....58-63.
Min humidity........65-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........95  95  95  92  92  92  93  93  93  81  81  81
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............80  80  80  80  80  80  60  60  60  60  60  60
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  10
Temp............56  55  54  55  55  55  56  58  59  59  60  60
RH..............81  83  84  84  86  86  84  80  76  72  72  72
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  10  10  15  10  10

$$
Forecaster...Hoenisch
Requested by...Kyle Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621433.13/TFX
.DELDT 09/18/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.a.miller@usda.gov