Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
723
FNUS75 KTFX 101155
FWSTFX
Spot Forecast for Bear Gulch...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
555 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on September 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Expect warm, dry, and breezy conditions through most of the day
today despite light winds early in the morning. Winds will peak
during the afternoon, with a >50% chance of seeing gusts over 25
mph beginning at 1300 and persisting through 1700, and a near 100%
chance of sustained winds over 15 mph during this same time
period. Winds will decrease in the evening hours as clouds
increase, with rain becoming likely after midnight. Rain will
transition from steady rain to scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon, with around a 30-40% chance of seeing rainfall
totals over a tenth of an inch.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Max temperature.....80-85.
Min humidity........14-19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southwest winds around 5 mph increasing to west
around 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph increasing to west 25 to
30 mph in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50 32 26 18 7 9 17 18 12 21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............57 59 64 68 72 77 80 80 82 80
RH..............46 42 38 33 27 24 21 19 19 20
20 FT wind dir..SW SW W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 10 15 15 15 15
20 FT wind gust.10 10 15 15 15 20 25 25 30 25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.5 3.5 5.5 6.0 7.0 7.5 8.0 7.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 15 25 25 30 30 30 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain overnight. Chance of rain overnight, then
rain likely after 3 am.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent overnight.
Chance of thunder...13 percent.
Min temperature.....52-57.
Max humidity........68-73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to around 5
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph
early in the evening.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........20 30 53 63 79 79 86 93 96 97 89 89
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type.... RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............79 77 72 68 66 64 63 62 60 59 57 56
RH..............22 25 27 33 38 42 44 48 54 58 63 68
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..15 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.25 20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.25 20 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 10 15
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain likely in
the morning, then rain showers likely and
slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent decreasing to 0 percent in the
afternoon.
Chance of thunder...17 percent.
Max temperature.....63-68.
Min humidity........44-49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
northwest in the late morning and afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in
the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78 78 78 63 63 63 72 72 72 78 78 78
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RN RN RN RN RN RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............55 54 54 56 57 59 60 61 64 62 62 60
RH..............72 73 73 73 70 63 58 55 49 49 49 50
20 FT wind dir..W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 3.0 4.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 5.5 4.0 3.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W N NW NW NW N
Transp wind spd.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15
$$
Forecaster...Ludwig
Requested by...Kyle Miller
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621433.3/TFX
.DELDT 09/10/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.a.miller@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov