Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
131
FNUS75 KTFX 251258
FWSTFX
Spot Forecast for 2025 Last Chance Stampede Fair and Rodeo...Lewis and Clark County Emergency Management
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
658 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on July 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
...Gusty and erratic winds possible near late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms today...
.DISCUSSION...
A southwest flow across the Northern Rockies will bring enough
moisture to allow the development of widely scattered thunderstorms
across southwest MT this afternoon that track northeast into
central MT this evening. These will be high-based storms with
little precipitation but are likely to produce gusty and erratic
outflow winds. These cells are most likely to be in the vicinity
of the Helena Valley between 5pm and 9pm. Otherwise, seasonably
warm temperatures are expected today with breezy west winds
developing by early this afternoon. Conditions on Saturday will be
similar to today with a greater coverage of thunderstorms
expected and additional moisture bringing a better chance for
precipitation as well as a marginal (5-10%) risk for severe
thunderstorms with hail and strong winds gusts.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of lightning.15 percent.
Max temperature.....89-94.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
morning, then becoming west 5-10 mph in the
afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5 1 0 4 6 12 15 25 28 25
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20
Temp............62 66 74 78 82 84 87 89 89 90
Surface wnd dir.E E E E SW W W W W W
Surface wnd spd.0 0 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10
Surface wnd gst.5 10 10 15 15 20 20 20 20 20
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) in the evening,
then becoming mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of lightning.20 percent.
Min temperature.....53-58.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds around 10 mph in the evening,
then shifting to the west overnight.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38 43 51 57 72 56 51 25 13 12 9 17
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of ltng (%).20 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............88 86 83 77 72 69 67 64 62 60 57 57
Surface wnd dir.W SW SW S W NW W W W W W W
Surface wnd spd.10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0
Surface wnd gst.20 20 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 5
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of lightning.24 percent.
Max temperature.....86-91.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming east around 5 mph early in
the afternoon, then shifting to the northwest
late in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.08 inches.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9 19 18 10 9 14 48 48 48 50 50 50
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
Chc of ltng (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............56 57 61 64 71 76 80 84 86 86 86 83
Surface wnd dir.W W N N N NE E E E NW NW NW
Surface wnd spd.0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5
Surface wnd gst.5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 15 15 15
$$
Forecaster...Moldan
Requested by...Autumn Ashdale
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2518373.3/TFX
.DELDT 07/25/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cody.moldan@noaa.gov, austin.mcdowell@noaa.gov