715
FXUS65 KTFX 021311
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
711 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop by this afternoon
  and evening, most numerous along the Rocky Mountain Front and
  the Hi- Line.

- The primary thunderstorm hazards for today will be brief heavy downpours,
  gusty winds, and hail in addition to lightning.

- Additional daily rounds of Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue
  heading into next week, with the strongest and most widespread
  activity expected Monday into Tuesday.

- Temperatures generally remain near average through at least
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

The on-going forecast is capturing current shower activity over
the plains of North Central Montana well and no morning update is
needed or planned. - Moldan

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 527 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Showers and some embedded thunderstorms continue to diminish over
Blaine County this morning while only a few isolated showers or
sprinkles are being observed over the remaining portions of the
forecast area. The combination of a weak low along the Canadian
border and ridging becoming more pronounced over the Great Basin
will shift the general flow aloft to a more of a westerly
direction over the next couple of days.

Precipitable water values will remain excessively high today over
North-central Montana, generally ranging between an inch and an
inch and a half, but there will be a slight decrease in
instability with CAPE dropping to around 1,000 J/kg and less.
Additionally, the westerly flow aloft will be less favorable for
storm clustering and back building for most locations except along
the Canadian border. All of these factors should reduce the
overall flash flooding threat despite a continued slow steering
current.

Storm coverage decreases further on Sunday as the exiting
Canadian low shunts much of the anomalous moisture eastward. Still
there will be some activity in the Milk River Valley and an
initial wave of showers and thunderstorms will creep back into the
southwest by the evening hours in response to a trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest.

An unstable southwesterly flow aloft returns to the Northern
Rockies by Monday, supplying bulk shear over 40 kts and boosting
precipitable water back over the inch mark. There will be waves of
showers and thunderstorms passing through Southwest and North-
central Montana Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The stronger
storms will be capable of strong, gusty winds, hail, and brief
heavy downpours.

The overall weather pattern looks to be much more progressive
next week compared to recent days. Another fast moving Pacific
trough looks to move through the Northern Rockies during the
second half of the week. Although there are timing and depth
issues to work out, there looks to be more showers and
thunderstorms with temperatures dipping slightly below average at
least temporarily. - RCG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue into next
week...

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop
again today, but less instability and a westerly flow aloft is
expected to reduce the overall flood threat for most locations.
The one potential exception to this will be along the Canadian
border, particularly in northern Hill and Blaine counties. With
most hires guidance supporting the heaviest activity remaining
over Alberta/Saskatchewan, no flash flood products are being
considered at this time. Regardless, the stronger storms will be
capable of producing localized heavy downpours, so conditions will
continue to be monitored here given amount of rainfall received
in recent days.

There is an expectation of less storm activity for most of Sunday
before an initial wave of storms begins to creep back into
Southwest Montana Sunday evening. Higher moisture levels, wind
shear, and instability will bring a return of northward moving
strong to severe thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. The primary
hazards will be strong, gusty winds, hail, and brief heavy
downpours. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
02/12Z TAF Period

Lighter end showers are already developing over North- central
Montana this morning. Additional scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop this afternoon and
evening, most numerous along the Rocky Mountain Front and the
Canadian border. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of
producing gusty winds, brief downpours, and small hail in addition
to lightning. VFR conditions are generally expected, but low VFR
cloud cover and brief category degradation of visibility can be
expected, mostly for the northern terminals. Most showers and
storms should diminish and end after 03/04Z. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  57  83  55 /  50  20   0   0
CTB  73  56  76  51 /  70  20  10   0
HLN  80  56  86  55 /  30  20   0  10
BZN  83  51  85  50 /  20  20  10  10
WYS  79  39  76  39 /  30  40  10  10
DLN  79  47  80  47 /  40  20  10  10
HVR  82  59  81  56 /  60  50  30  10
LWT  77  53  78  53 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls