453
FXUS65 KTFX 211713
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1013 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for patchy fog across North-Central MT through
  Saturday morning.

- A drier weekend, with colder temps lingering along the North-
  Central MT plains.

- Windy conditions set up for the plains next week, with a few
  rounds of rain/snow throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 422 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

With the current upper-level wave exiting off to the east late
tonight, upper-level ridging will be building in for the weekend.
This will keep calmer winds and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday.
Calmer winds and low level moisture from the existing snowpack will
bring a slight chance for patchy fog to develop over the North-
Central MT plains Saturday morning. However, passing clouds
Saturday morning will limit the overall spatial coverage of fog.
Another cold night is expected in the North-Central MT plains,
where wind chill temps can drop briefly as low at -25 degrees
along the Hi-line.

Starting Monday, we begin to transition into more of a zonal flow
aloft pattern. This will start to increase winds aloft as well as
increase snow along the Continental Divide Monday. The stronger
winds mixing down to the surface Monday will bring the concern for a
small window of blowing and drifting snow along the Rocky
Mountain Front in the morning. Afternoon temperatures warming up
to 30s and 40s will then limit this concerns as the snowpack
crusts.

Better synoptics st up Tuesday and Wednesday for better chances
of precipitation moving east off of the Continental Divide and
into the lower elevations. Small instability Tuesday/Wednesday
will bring the concern for a few more intense snow showers, but
location and timing of these better snow showers remain uncertain.
Mid next week, Tuesday through Friday, windy conditions look to
set up along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, with
Thursday looking to be the peak. The increase in chinook winds
will also bring temperatures back to above average for next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Mountain Snow Beginning of Next Week:

For the Northern  Divide, there`s a 30% chance for 4" of snow at
Marias Pass Monday, with up to a 70% chance at the higher peaks.
Tuesday, these chances increases to 50% at Marias Pass, with up to
a 90% chance at the higher peaks.

Winds Next Week:

Ensembles have already begun to pick up on a windy signal mid week.
The European Model Extreme Forecast Index (EFI)already shows between
0.70-0.89 Tuesday through Friday. This indicates ensemble models are
starting to pick up on windy conditions for the region towards the
second half of the forecast period. Cut Bank has a 40% chance for 58
mph winds Monday, increasing to a 70% chance by Thursday.
Additionally, there is a 10-40% chance for the rest of the
plains/Southwest MT valleys on Thursday. Currently, there is lesser
confidence in high winds setting up along the Rocky Mountain Front
Monday due to the quick window of the better 700mb jet moving
through. Though it is something to watch in the coming days. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions prevail this TAF period under some mid level
cloudiness and light winds. Although lower probability, there is a
small risk for fog tonight across the plains. Confidence was too
low to warrant mention in the TAFs at this time, however. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  15  -3  35  21 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  13  -3  31  14 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  33  11  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  36  12  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  26  -2  36   7 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  36  15  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
HVR   5 -12  19  11 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  20   6  39  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls