040
FXUS65 KTFX 230225
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
825 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers or thunderstorms tonight and into Friday.
- A slow warming trend from Saturday through the middle of next
  week.
- The chances for precipitation decrease for a few days after the
  current weather system moves through.

&&

.UPDATE...

Rain showers will continue through tomorrow morning across North-
central and Central Montana. Pops were adjusted across Central
and North-central Montana to reflect the latest hi-res model
guidance and radar imagery. The rest of the forecast is on track.
-IG

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 557 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
An upper level disturbance is moving from southwest to northeast
through the CWA this afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms are
accompanying this disturbance. The main impact from any stronger
storms will be wind gusts around 55 mph, and some small hail. The
showers will linger mostly over North Central MT into Friday, but
overall, the precipitation will be decreasing from south to north
during the day.

Behind this disturbance, warmer air will slowly move into the
CWA. It will take several days, but do expect afternoon
temperatures to warm from near 70 degrees to begin the weekend, to
rise to near/into the lower 80s by the middle portion of next
week.

The chances for precipitation are generally on the low side from
Saturday into early next week. There is still a chance for
afternoon showers/thunderstorms, mostly on Saturday over Southwest
MT. For much of Sun thru Wed, mostly dry conditions will prevail,
with roughly just a 20 percent chance for passing shower from
Monday through Wednesday.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main concern will be the potential for an isolated severe
thunderstorm this evening. As of now, the storms are not overly
widespread, thus they shouldn`t last long at one given point this
evening.

Additionally, with warmer temperatures next week, mountain
snowpack will resume a more steady melting process. Do expect
rivers/creeks to rise a bit next week, but no flooding is expected
at this time. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF Period

A band of SHRA and TSRA continue to push across North Central and
Southwestern Montana this evening, bringing low VFR to MVFR
conditions to the area. As of 0z, the main threat for TSRA appears
to be near KBZN, though this should clear by 2z. Expect the low
VFR to MVFR conditions to continue through the overnight and into
the morning, though KLWT looks to have ceilings below IFR to near
LIFR conditions overnight tonight and tomorrow morning. Ludwig

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  64  40  69 /  70  60  20  20
CTB  41  61  37  69 /  40  60  20  10
HLN  43  68  43  73 /  80  40  10  20
BZN  38  66  40  68 /  70  30  30  40
WYS  29  62  31  64 /  40  30  30  50
DLN  34  64  39  66 /  40  30  20  20
HVR  45  63  39  69 /  60  70  20  30
LWT  42  58  38  62 /  90  70  30  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls