795
FXUS65 KTFX 231427
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
827 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For areas north of Interstate 90 from Butte to Bozeman,
  generally expect dry conditions along with near normal
  temperatures for the next several days.

- For areas south of Interstate 90, it will generally be a dry
  weekend, but a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
  starting Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...

No major changes to the going forecast. Generally benign
conditions are expected through the rest of the day. -thor

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 357 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:
The upper level pattern will generally result in an upper level
ridge of high pressure over the northern Rockies from now through
next Saturday. This will generally result in mostly dry conditions
for areas north of Interstate 90 from Butte to Bozeman, along with
seasonable late August temperatures.

For areas south of Interstate 90 from Butte to Bozeman, some upper
level moisture/energy will try to move through far Southwest MT
daily, starting on Monday. This will result in daily chances for
afternoon showers/thunderstorms, with the most favored area
generally along/south of a line from Dillon to Big Sky. For
Tue/Wed, precipitable water will increase to around 1 inch, which
could result in some storms producing heavy rainfall. If any of
the storms occur during peak heating, it is also possible for a
few strong wind gusts. Otherwise, seasonable late August
temperatures are expected across the Southwest as well over the
next week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
The main concern for next week will be the thunderstorm potential.
How strong will the wind gusts be and how much rainfall will occur
from some of the stronger storms. The probability of storms each
day starting Monday is generally less than 50 percent. Overall
confidence is moderate for thunderstorm activity, but low for the
placement/amount of precipitation that could fall. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
23/12Z TAF Period.

VFR conditions will prevail across the CWA through the period.
Some mid/high level clouds will start to increase from south to
north, mostly after 04z Sun. Areas of smoke will also drift across
the skies of Southern MT through the period. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  80  48  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  76  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  84  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  86  46  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  84  38  82  40 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  86  47  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  78  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  76  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls