648
FXUS65 KTFX 232340
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warm up in temperatures continue this week, with
  temperatures leveling off for the weekend.

- Daily chances for precipitation through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 124 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

A weak shortwave trough this afternoon will continue to bring
isolated showers and thunderstorms. Weak deep layer shear, CAPE,
and forcing will keep thunderstorms weak other than lightning and
typical breezy winds. PWATs of 0.4-0.5" will keep precipitation
amounts light, with 0.05" of moisture or less with showers. For
the rest of the week, there will be a weak troughing/zonal flow
pattern. This will bring in disturbances aloft to keep daily
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
Thursday will increase coverage of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to isolated to scattered. Stronger winds at 700mb
will mix down breezy winds Thursday and Friday along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Southwest MT. Southwest flow aloft will help
warm temperatures back to slightly above normal by mid week.
Ensembles hint at another ridge towards the beginning of next
week, which will return drier conditions and above normal
temperatures.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Showers and thunderstorms this week will generally stay isolated
in coverage, and will not be strong in terms of wind gusts and
hail. The exception will be Thursday, as a small shortwave aloft
with directional and magnitude shear of 30-40kts can help to
produce a few organized storms. Overall severe chances remain low
at this moment but we will monitor for a few strong thunderstorms.
Ensembles are coming into an agreement on a ridge building in
beginning of next week. The main question mark is the evolution
and duration of the ridge, but currently it`s forecasted to bring
above average temperatures and drier conditions for Sunday and
Monday. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF Period

Winds and isolated shower activity decrease after 24/03Z. Clearing
skies and lingering surface moisture may encourage some patchy fog
development late tonight into Tuesday morning, mostly over the river
valleys of the plains and the southwest wind protected basins.
There is less than a 20% chance for impacts at the terminals. Aside
from some afternoon cloud builds and an isolated shower or storm,
light winds and VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  79  50  84 /  10   0  10  10
CTB  40  75  45  80 /  20   0  10  10
HLN  45  80  50  83 /  10   0  20  10
BZN  40  80  45  84 /  20  20  20  10
WYS  27  70  32  73 /  20  20  20  10
DLN  38  74  43  78 /  10  20  20  10
HVR  45  80  50  86 /  20   0  10  20
LWT  42  74  49  79 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls