124
FXUS65 KTFX 171433
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
833 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Mix of wet and dry thunderstorms expected today, with a few of
   the stronger storms producing localized strong wind gusts and
   heavy downpours.
 - Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on
   Monday, with gusty winds possible again.
 -Turning warm and dry for midweek, with highs reaching the mid
  to upper 90s in some spots.

&&

.UPDATE...

Current radar shows a few areas with light showers this morning
across Southwest and North-Central MT, though very little amounts
of moisture are precipitating out of them. Better chances for
showers and thunderstorms arrive in the afternoon and evening
hours today. Vertical profile soundings show deep invert V shape
soundings again today. It`ll be a similar scenario as to
yesterday as dry air at the surface will help produce strong to an
isolated low end severe wind gusts today. Higher moisture content
in the atmosphere today will have better chances for wetting
showers and thunderstorms, though there may be some isolated dry
thunder in Southwest MT since they are drier down there. -Wilson


&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 537 AM MDT Sun Aug 17 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Southwesterly flow aloft today will gradually give way to upper
level ridging for midweek this week, bringing a change from
unsettled weather today and Monday to hot and dry conditions. A
shortwave embedded in the upper level flow will move through the
area this afternoon and evening, kicking off a few showers and
thunderstorms as it does so. These showers and storms will begin
to form across Gallatin, Madison, and Beaverhead Counties during
the early afternoon (1-3PM). These showers and storms will
gradually move northeastward through the afternoon and evening,
bringing localized heavy rain and some gusty winds.

Even as our upper level pattern begins to shift towards upper
level ridging on Monday, just enough moisture will remain to allow
for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop. While
rainfall should be limited, any storm could produce some gusty
winds that will travel away from the parent storms. Beyond Monday,
temperatures will quickly increase as upper level ridging builds
in, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s by Wednesday. However,
a surface cold front will push through Thursday morning, bringing
some light rain, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures that will
last through the end of the week.

- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios

One of the areas of decreased confidence in the forecast period
will be the timing of the cold front on Thursday. Current model
projections suggest a fairly uneventful frontal passage on
Thursday, but history suggests that these types of cooldowns
generally are accompanied by gusty winds and/or some
thunderstorms. Right now, the forecast reflects the forecasted
benign passage, but watch this space for any deviations from the
forecast. Ludwig&&

.AVIATION...
17/06Z TAF Period

Local and regional smoke from wildfires will continue to cause
reductions in slantwise visibility across central and southwest
Montana with the highest impacts expected at KBZN, KEKS, and
KHLN.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
across central and southwest Montana after 17/18Z and last
through at least 18/04Z after migrating into North Central and
Northeastern Montana. THe main concerns with any thunderstorm
that develops will be gusty, erratic winds and lightning. -thor


Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/06Z TAF Period

Local and regional smoke from wildfires will continue to cause
reductions in slantwise visibility across central and southwest
Montana with the highest impacts expected at KBZN, KEKS, and
KHLN.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
across central and southwest Montana after 17/18Z and last
through at least 18/04Z after migrating into North Central and
Northeastern Montana. THe main concerns with any thunderstorm
that develops will be gusty, erratic winds and lightning. -thor


Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to continue through
the weekend.

Passing showers/thunderstorm could produce strong erratic wind
gusts. Additionally, afternoon temperatures in 80s and lower 90s,
breezy west winds, combined with lower afternoon humidity, will
result in elevated fire concerns from time to time. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  83  56  89  59 /  30  30  20   0
CTB  80  50  85  53 /   0   0  20   0
HLN  83  55  89  58 /  60  30  40   0
BZN  86  50  89  53 /  70  40  20  10
WYS  78  40  82  40 /  60  50  10   0
DLN  81  48  88  50 /  80  30  20   0
HVR  86  57  89  60 /  10  10  20   0
LWT  81  53  85  58 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls